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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce A. Brotnov who wrote (14720)	12/19/2001 9:24:13 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Bruce, Good observations on what the new January effect is. It seems to be evolving as more and more people become aware of past patterns--and traders try to get ahead of it (on the buy and sell). I would think that this time around we may go through an unusual period simply because we may be in an economic recovery after a major bubble bursting. That would be bearish on the markets. However, you throw in huge money market assets earning low rates; record short interest resulting partly from a period when hedge or short funds got popular. That mix is hard to figure out. Maybe the bubble effect is totally offset by the other factors I have listed--and maybe even more important. I am still looking for us to go higher before we go lower. The strength in the S and P 500 was a good sign and all we saw was some rotation out of mostly semiconductors. So far the Nasdaq selloffs are not that significant and probably a positive sign for the period to december 30.

To: Bruce A. Brotnov who wrote (14720)	12/19/2001 9:58:54 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Bruce, going back 10-years, the COMPX has ALWAYS made higher highs in January than at the end of the previous year. I think in two instances, it peaked in mid-January. Most of the time it peaked at the end of January. In other words, in 10 out of the last 10 years, we have made a higher high in January than the last close of the previous year, and most of the time substantially higher. 1995-1996 we dropped 5% from the beginning to mid-January, but ended with a higher high. Those are pretty good odds, I'd say. It does not mean we have to take out the December high, it just means we will be higher in January than at the end of December.