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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45397)	12/19/2001 11:59:45 PM
From: r.edwards	Respond to of 65232

Jim Willy Cobalt B's, and all others interested. I have an oil & gas prospect, very small but lucrative, Barnett Shale ie. Mitchell / Devon. It has 385 feet of upper and lower barnett shale shown on a density log. The well was already drilled in 1981 to test a completely different zone. In 1981 they did not care about fracing the barnett shale back then. I knew the ladies who owned the property and they told me another oil co. was attempting to negotiate a deal to acquire it from them. I verified this from a title co. source. I then proceeded to move faster and better than the oil co.( paid the ladies more money, ) and I got the lease. Two petroleum engineers have looked at it and say yes,,, it needs to have a large frac job done on it ala' Mitchell/Devon, and you will have a producing oil and gas well ! At todays prices, the well will take about 12 ~ 18 months to pay back the capital outlay of the frac job and completion,{approx. $ 470,000} after that point, its pure income after operating expenses. I am going to take partners in 1% increments or more.,,,$4,700.per point. Payout 18 months or so depending on current gas and oil prices. The life is estimated at 8 to 12 years. There is room for 1 additional well after this, but it would have to be drilled from the top down at a later date based on economics. The beauty of this is the well bore is already drilled and logged. If there is interest from anyone, please PM me with how you want to be contacted, and I will get the info to you after the holidays. Privacy respected .

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45397)	12/20/2001 12:43:46 AM
From: Mannie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Wow. What a response, JW Cornbread. Stocks are definitely a major area where I will put my investment dollars. Real estate is the other, not necessarily in this country, though. For personal reasons, not because I am avoiding investments here. I am off balance right now when it comes to evaluating equity investments, I will certainly admit that. Having been out of the country, and out of touch during the latest rally, I'm not going to chase it here. I think, by any measure, market valuations are high. Perhaps the last vestiges of bubblemania. I think there is another deep market low lurking out there in 2002, somewhere not too far off. Valuations are so far out of whack from historical norms, we have to return to the mean. I think the economic data from q4 and the upcoming q1 are going to initiate a plunge. Washington State unemployment is over 7% & rising. Thanks for your thoughtful and typically brilliant response. I still think we have another shoe or two, yet to drop. Ducky. I think I'll go skiing and ponder it all.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (45397)	12/20/2001 5:05:29 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

BRIEFING's Excellent Report on WHEN TO BUY STOCKS Technical Basics: Declines Are Good 19-Dec-01 09:29 ET [BRIEFING.COM - Jim Schroeder] Declines... are good. Gordon Gekko didn't say it in the movie Wall Street but he certainly could have. It may not make intuitive sense for market or individual issue losses to be a taken in a positive light but pullbacks provide both opportunity and clarification. Opportunity Say a particular stock, sector or index has run hard but because your focus was on other areas you missed out on entering a position. What do you do? Chasing the market can be very risky at times but obviously jumping in and riding the momentum wave can prove profitable for the nimble. A more conservative approach is not to chase but to wait for the particular investment vehicle to pullback and potentially create a better buying opportunity. An example of this is seen in the chart below of Circuit City (CC). <Note: His charts are not copyable. Go to bigcharts.com or your favorite to check out or subscribe to briefing.com.> If you were not willing to step into the fray in the wake of the Sep meltdown or your focus was elsewhere, CC provided an opportunity to enter after it was stymied by a solid resistance in the 15/16 area (pre 9/11 low, gap and 200 day simple ma). What you are looking for after a steep advance is a choppy/overlapping correction that holds near a support. In this case the 38.2% retracement of the rally held within a nickel and quickly bounced. Entry There are a variety of ways to enter a position with two will be highlighted here. The first is more for the position trader that is willing to stay in a trade for several days/weeks as long as it continues to perform as expected. The red A on the chart above is the initial high and once the stock had staged a breakout after holding at a support a entry would be triggered. The red B is the stop level which marks the pullback low. The second type of entry is for a shorter term trader. The same basic method is used but only on an intraday basis. The risk is higher as the potential exists for the correction to be extended but it does present the opportunity to enter at a more favorable level. The chart below is a 15 minute chart of the initial rally off of the B low. As we can see, a retracement support worked well again with the entry at the top of the rally and the stop at the pullback low. Clarification Pullbacks also help to clarify the shorter term bias and the underlying strength of the move. A stock that has surged significantly on a percentage basis begins to slow with some bearish pressure noted. Is it time to jump ship? Given that you have of course bumped up your stops as the move has progressed, you are prepared for the worst case scenario. However, a more limited decline that holds at short term retracements (or trendline, moving averages etc.) and is accompanied by lower volume readings increases confidence (clarifies) that the probability is higher for a continuation of the trend. Conclusion There are certainly no guarantees in trading but listening to what the market is telling you during pullbacks will help provide both clarification and opportunity. This is critical at times when valuation gets way out of line as momentum can continue to carry a stock/index considerably further (in either direction) despite an excessively high or low readings (see Nasdaq 1999/2000).