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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zoltan! who wrote (211744)	12/20/2001 3:17:03 PM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Speaking of Condit: Condit could make history He could be the first Valley incumbent to lose a primary -- ever. Bee Washington Bureau (Published Thursday, December, 20, 2001 9:19AM) WASHINGTON -- Rep. Gary Condit could end up making history -- in the bleakest possible way. With some colleagues abandoning him and poll numbers looking bad, Condit by conventional political measures is the underdog in the Democratic primary to be held March 5. That could put him on track to be the first San Joaquin Valley congressman, and one of the few Californians, ever to be toppled in a House primary election. "I can't offhand remember [more than one] instance in the last few decades in which a California incumbent was defeated in a House primary," said Gary Jacobson, a political scientist and elections specialist at the University of California at San Diego. Incumbents usually rule, particularly in primaries. In 2000, only three House incumbents nationwide lost to primary challengers; one of them was Democrat Marty Martinez of eastern Los Angeles County. The election before that, in 1998, saw only one House incumbent lose in the primary. In 1996, only two incumbents fell in primaries. San Joaquin Valley incumbents have been even more firmly entrenched than most. No incumbent representing the area that includes Stockton, Modesto and Fresno has been defeated in a primary election since California became a state in 1850, a Bee review of election records shows. The Valley's primary stability dramatizes election trends in the rest of California, where Democrat Hilda Solis' primary victory over Martinez attracted notice in 2000 partly because it was so rare. Solis' victory, in turn, showed the formula sometimes found in successful primary challenges: vulnerable incumbents matched against well-connected challengers. More often than not, no incumbent primary challenge at all has arisen in the San Joaquin Valley. When the challenges do arise, they're usually weak. To wit: Condit beat a Libertarian in a 1998 blanket primary by an 89% to 10% margin, while then-Democratic Rep. John McFall won a 1970 primary by an 86% to 14% margin. General elections can be trickier, and the Valley has had its share of incumbents lose in November. Mostly, though, incumbents inside and outside the Valley have glided past primaries -- at least, until special circumstances arise. "Scandal can be a major matter that helps a challenger gain a foothold," said University of Rochester political scientist Harold Stanley, adding that "seniority is less a factor than whether or not the incumbent has kept his political fences mended or fallen out of favor due to scandal." Stanley is co-editor of "Vital Statistics on American Politics," where numbers tell part of the story. The year in which a modern record of 19 House incumbents lost in primaries -- 1992 -- was also the year in which many incumbents were caught up in a House bank controversy. Scandal, Jacobson agreed, "is about the only reason [incumbents] lose primaries." In Condit's case, the questions arise over his covert relationship with missing former intern Chandra Levy, as well as the extent of his cooperation with investigators. Neither Condit nor his campaign staff returned a call seeking comment. In addition to vulnerable incumbents, Jacobson said, successful primary challenges often are characterized by an experienced challenger who has held previous elected office, who can raise money and who can claim party support through endorsements. Condit's main challenger Assembly Member Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced, is currently chairman of the Assembly Rules Committee and already has held several fund-raisers for his congressional race. Three members of Congress have endorsed him publicly so far. "I can't exactly describe the 'typical' successful primary challenger," Stanley said, but "they're rare." The reporter can be reached at mdoyle@mcclatchydc.com or (202) 383-0006. fresnobee.com