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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (56488)	12/21/2001 5:34:10 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

Hi Tippet, I think by then so many institutions will bemaking or already positioned themselves that momentum will continue either more advances or a sideways consolidation. I do think this market will test our patience as any turn around will be anemic and slow. Consolidation will be our friend.f A fast upward Rally will signal a quick demise in any upward Rally. I don't view the recovery from the 9/11 selloff as a Rally up - just a recovery from an external surprise. The Q2 recovery doesn't need to post much more than a building backlog and forward looking viewpoints will be positive enough to hold things together or up. Keep in mind that in October of 1998 - the asian contagion was far from over.However by January of 1999 - backlogs were growing and the turn had already begun. One of the most positive events that HAS OCCURRED is a reduction in inventory.By the time Christmas is over I believe any inventory replenishment will result in new production and orders will benefit from that. There also seem to be some bright spots surfacing that are new to the times : flat panel displays are hot i.e. GNSS's meteoric rise and DVD's are outselling vcr's,wireless is an existing option whereas one year before it was just a concept.PDA's make sense as an e-mail device this year and there is stock and the price is down $100. from last year.Last but not least we can have wireless lan's in our home for very little money (200.-300) last year that also was a concept that has turned reality this year. Most of this years to cool stuff will be a commodity product next year and that means many more IC being shipped over the next year. If we add to that a PC replacement cycle it could turn much faster than most expect. JMHO Bob