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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LTK007 who wrote (15323)12/21/2001 8:43:55 AM
From: byhiselo  Respond to of 99280
 
<<Greenspan's obsession with thinking he can manipulate the market place>>

i thought no one was bigger than the market?

greenspan will learn this lesson, nothing personal...just bidness, i really think the man has become less than
economically astute (if he ever was)

remember the story of the anglo-saxon king, in order to prove to his courtiers that he was not all-powerful,
had them carry him to the seaside and commanded the waves to stop...we sorely need such humility in high places today

cheers



To: LTK007 who wrote (15323)12/21/2001 2:51:35 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 99280
 
possible seeds of disaster, yes
but if so, then will be felt in late 2002 imho
and very much in 2003 perhaps

the wild card is oil/gas and energy market
if it can gain traction without price spikes, then we win time

reminds me of SMU Econ Professor Ravi Batra
his main premise behind US economic decline is chronic overproduction and excess debt
eventually the inventory stacks up high, no money to chase it
resulting in deflation hitting a major cycle
we could see it in 2003-05
just like Japan now
in fact, I think the initial effect of Japan's climax will be lower supply costs, just like in 1997
then in next stage, the overcapacity catches up to us
excess is seen now in computerdom, telecom

it will be interesting to see if it hits entire economy

for the record, I have thought Greenspan to be a hack
ever since 1998 when he brokered the LTCM bailout
from that point onward, pure ragtag faulty monetary policy
he has been fighting inflation for 7 yrs since 1994
all the while, deflation has gathered forceful momentum
and his forecasts have a 30% correct record, if that
very mediocre for a central bank in leader nation
analysis is replete with heretic tenets
e.g. growth breeds inflation
e.g. lower employment breeds inflation
e.g. shallow policy of managing economy via interest rates

/ jim