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To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8283)12/22/2001 1:23:25 PM
From: Montana Wildhack  Respond to of 14101
 
Now that Rebecca has publicly put the US market at $8
billion I have recut the figures to 2003 numbers and trimmed
down some of the unncessary range.

1 2 3 4 5 7.5 10 15


17.5% 26.3 52.7 79 105 132 198 263 395

20.0% 30.1 60.2 90.3 120 151 226 301 452

22.5% 33.9 67.7 102 135 169 254 339 508

25.0% 37.6 75.3 113 151 188 282 376 564

27.5% 41.4 82.8 124 166 207 310 414 621

As before, top is percentage of market, left is percentage
from J&J, all figures in 2003 Cdn dollars.

Using the 5%/22.5% number again if J&J sells 500 million
US in what will then be a 10 billion market, DMX would get
170 million Cdn. That should equate to something around
$2 EPS and a $30-50 shareprice depending on growth and
other variables.

BTW - I used $8 billion plus 12% growth for 2 years.

This still understates the total available market in my
opinion. Pennsaid also targets Tylenol, Aspirin, Bengay,
Motrin, and a host of other pain/anti-inflammatory markets.

I'll need to add WF10 on top of this.



To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8283)12/22/2001 2:29:55 PM
From: axial  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Hi, Wolf - Great post. It pretty well encapsulates my thoughts on DMX.

After a month of reviewing almost two years' intermittently dejected, confused, elated, and impatient posts on the boards, I can't help but feel the present distribution (and consequent price depression) is a great investment opportunity.

Many have refused to accept what the TA is saying on this stock: it is absolutely, undeniably in distribution, and furthermore, it appears that the amount of the draw is in excess of $6M, Cdn.

I'll go further: the 3 A's have learned to modulate their selling to the point that they don't kill the Golden Goose.

The key indicator has not been the selling, but as pointed out previously, the volume.

I'll post some cumulative figures on SH, because HTML is not supported here, but this chart tells the story...

stockcharts.com[w,a]dallyimy[db][pb50!b60!b70!b80!b90!b100!b20!b200!f][vc60][iUd20!Ub14!Ll14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lc20!Lf]

One can never be cynical enough, or careful enough, in investing. The more I examine the potential, the risk/reward, and anecdotal evidence (ie., use of DMX's therapies in uncontrolled environments) the less contrarian evidence I see.

The legacy of frustration and disappointment, IMO, is distorting appraisal of the facts. Despite my wish to exercise caution, I'm fighting the desire to buy more at these artificially low prices.

By accident or design (and as others have suggested, I'm not so sure it is an accident) a unique buying opportunity is being presented.

Regards,

Jim



To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8283)12/22/2001 5:15:40 PM
From: Mark Bartlett  Respond to of 14101
 
Wolf,

Great post.

Lets hope that 2002 is DMX's year.

Best to everyone over the holiday season. May 2002 be a prosperous, healthy and peaceful year for us all.

MB