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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12069)	12/23/2001 5:46:09 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

<<extremely comfortable with the intangible economy and don't have cognitive dissonance over it.>> I meant the populace the masses, the majority. There are 'early adopters' like you and me that see it and discovered that we can't do nothing to change the direction the arrow is pointing at. We can only observe and make the best out of it. It is Darwin at work. <<Where I become uncomfortable is to know which direction to go having achieved what I wanted.>> I will give my take on that in a dedicated posting next

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12069)	12/23/2001 6:30:13 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Why I stopped worrying and started loving intangibles. (Parody of Stanley Kubrick's film Dr. Stangelove title.) <<Where we go next with the world of plenty is the problem.>> I am very positive about the NEXT. The next is already happening, only that will become next when the people realize what happened. The world -when tangibles ruled- was akin to a big banquet where a mass of hungry would cry for those seating at the table have more and more so that more crumbs fell to the floor for them. The move into a intangible-based economy changed that. “Le Brun reports for Latin America that 45% of manufactured products and 74% of durable goods are consumed by 5% of the population” Duller, H.J., Development Technology, London, Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1971. Expand this to the whole world and the banquet metaphor becomes clear. Post War period -the most tangible era the world have witnessed- created lots of huge engineering and construction companies. By the end of the 60's they had nothing to do. Construction stage was finished on both sides of the Atlantic. Man had been already in the Moon. All military paraphernalia the 'milicos' wanted the military-Industrial complex had built for them and was stored. By 1973 we had the abracadabra called the oil shock -or oil boom depend which side of the counter one was in- and immediately afterwards those firms had something to do: Construct infrastructure in the OPEC countries and Petro-dollars financed projects in non-OPEC countries. The increase in oil prices was no more than a tax in every person who used petroleum derivatives. All the proceeds concentrated in the hands of few countries and western banks. It was change in the sense that the banquet didn't need to increase (in fact the banquet decreased) and the ones under the table got a piece of the action. All those TNCs (third countries nationals now could have higher income working in the gulf states. All those countries importing petrodollars engaged in a frenzy of construction activity. This was a change. Today with the shift into intangibles, the banquet metaphor no longer holds. This because capital flocks to a region, if the region delivers, it stays there and attracts more. If not capital flies out leaving behind Indonesias, Argentinas Thailands and Russias. This cycles of "Boom, Busts and Recoveries" took centuries to complete. In an intangible economy, it takes a decade and will take even less in the future. That because an intangible-based economy is fast. So the autocrats, oligarchs and plutocrats have to learn the lesson fast too. See how fast capital flew to US, fuelled the bubble, deflate the bubble and is flying out again. That's the beauty of intangibleness at the macro level.