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To: NOW who wrote (26145)	12/23/2001 5:25:26 PM
From: Terry Maloney	Respond to of 209892

It is. I was interested to see that Mr Moto is posting over there. (Not that I understand a single word he says, but I love to hear him talk - g)

To: NOW who wrote (26145)	12/23/2001 7:13:43 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

sounds like HB talking

To: NOW who wrote (26145)	12/24/2001 8:38:08 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

Re Noland: this observation is important -- he's said it before, but that doesn't make it any less important. I know this is happening big time in the utility industry since ENE ... when folks start limiting exposure like they have been after each of these crises -- at some point it starts feeding on itself. >>And, since so much of the credit excess has been perpetrated in the financial sphere where risk is then “mitigated” through the aggressive use of derivatives and “hedging strategies,” one of the important (unappreciated) manifestations of this credit and speculative excess has been acute financial market volatility and instability – equity, energy, credit markets, etc. I would argue that this extreme volatility is taking a toll on the financial intermediaries and speculator/derivative players, which has begun to impact the ability of the U.S. financial sector to expand credit (at least in key sectors). << One sign that the policy makers are starting to "hit the wall" is the inability of their machinations to influence long rates (more than temporarily) -- Noland is right on here: >>Don’t we think that going forward the mortgage finance sector is key (it has inarguably been a key sector of credit/money expansion), and with rates rising we would expect a major decline in refis and, thus, mortgage credit expansion. I think a strong case can be made that we have almost reached a key inflection point in monetary expansion and that the Fed’s job becomes much more difficult going forward without the help of an historic mortgage lending boom. <<