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To: hdl who wrote (140234)	12/23/2001 11:48:11 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Why would you think that? And please don't tell me because CNBC told you so.

To: hdl who wrote (140234)	12/24/2001 6:45:59 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

Any insight into your understanding like everyone else provides, or you just spewing?? DAK

To: hdl who wrote (140234)	12/24/2001 7:47:57 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 436258

HDL: The many daily lay-off reports (and many firms are no longer bothering to report lay-offs) do not suggest this. Also, the growing "total unemployed" numbers do not suggest this. Remember too that the U.S. unemployment numbers tend to make the situation appear better than it really is as several classes of actual unemployed people are dumped from the stats (e.g., those who have become so discouraged that they are no longer actively looking for a job). The fact that the unemployed stat has risen during the usually buoyant Christmas period also suggests that once we get into the post-holiday period, we will see consequential additions to that number. Classified ads that relate to employment also continue to sink. Best, Earlie

To: hdl who wrote (140234)	12/24/2001 8:09:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

HDL, the only indicator of turning the corner is misplaced optimism which is to be expected after living through what John Templeton refered to the greatest period of financial insanity in history- I completely agree with his assessment. Mike

To: hdl who wrote (140234)	12/24/2001 10:52:15 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

the jobless claims figures "dropping" are still in the process of falling back to the level prior to the terrorist attacks. that still indicates a weakening job market and economy. you may get a flattening of the headline unemployment rate for the next several months purely due to statistical abberations in the government's data. One, the seasonally adjusted rate is about .4 above the unadjusted rate. Two, there is usually an increase of .3 to .7 in the unadjusted rate in January. And three, the seasonal adjustment will probably overcompensate for two. You could see the headline numbers move more strongly higher in the spring and summer. one of the main differences with 91-92 is that you don't have 18 more months of fed interest rate cuts from this point forward.