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Pastimes : QQQ & DIA - chat & chart -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Khymn who wrote (257)	12/26/2001 10:34:41 AM
From: Chris McConnel	Respond to of 795

Happy Holidays Mysty! We are back at QQQ 40. Will we break through or get repelled? >> I don't even want to think about possibility of Japan default.... if that happens we are all sinking together. Ya, ya, doom and gloom -g-. If Japan defaults, we might have a flight to safety (t-bonds) and another reaction low equities. Be we would bounce back just we did after 9/11. And when they do default, it will be viewed as the first positive in a long time. That's what it will take for them to reform their system. At least get the bad loans of the books and begin lending to small and medium businesses. Also, with money market accounts and cds yielding less than 2%, there's a lot of money that will be looking for higher returns. Any dip will be bought. This will be a good trading market. Maybe 35-45 for the next 6 months, IMHO. >> I think we are at the verge of GLOBAL recession which usually accompany conflict and war. The US recession officially began in March. A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. If it last through 1st Half 02, then it becomes a depression. -Chris

To: Jon Khymn who wrote (257)	12/26/2001 12:01:56 PM
From: Chris McConnel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 795

If you get a chance checkout: stockcharts.com He's got some interesting ideas on low risk counter-trend setups. See the circles on the on the daily chart STO? Great entry points. -Chris

To: Jon Khymn who wrote (257)	1/8/2002 12:32:44 AM
From: Jon Khymn	Respond to of 795

Japan might be standing on quick sand now... They have huge bad loans to clean up, a lot of them tied to political corruption. Our worries might just come true... ========================== iol.co.za Japanese banking system 'about to collapse' January 05 2002 at 07:55PM TOKYO: Japan's financial system is headed toward collapse and will require a government bailout of one trillion dollars, a US think tank said. "Japan appears poised to follow the passive route of outright default," resident scholar John H. Makin wrote in the monthly Economic Outlook report put out by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research on Wednesday. "The negative net worth of the Japanese banking system is somewhere above the yen-equivalent of one trillion dollars," Makin wrote. "When the banking system collapses... the Bank of Japan will need to inject at least one trillion into the banks to protect depositors from losses." He said such a procedure would need to be financed by the Japanese government, resulting in total public debt jumping by 15 percent, and causing a surge in liquidity that would cause Japan's currency and bonds to collapse. 'It amounts to beating harder a dead horse' "Japan's deflation and debt crisis now constitute systemic risk to the global economy," he wrote. The report harshly criticises Japan for failing to stop rampant deflation, which increases the burden of paying off debts. "Efforts by the Bank of Japan to boost economic activity and to reflate by increasing reserves in the banking system and cutting short-term interest rates virtually to zero amount to beating harder a dead horse," Makin wrote. "The dead horse is the Japanese banking system, which by virtue of its insolvency is unable to act as a financial intermediary borrowing short from the central bank and lending to Japan's private sector." Makin also criticised moves to postpone past next March the government's plan to cap its guarantee on bank deposits to 10 million yen (about R900 000), saying; "that step will only delay the outright collapse of the banking system." - Sapa-AFP