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To: Les H who wrote (1208)	12/25/2001 6:48:54 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29596

headline unemployment rate may hardly budge here for awhile, despite seasonal layoffs, due to seasonal adjustment accounting for a huge jump in unemployed this time of year (see 1991-1992, etc.) and adjusted figure being 5.7 versus unadjusted figure at 5.3. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1991 7.1 7.3 7.2 6.5 6.7 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.8 1992 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.2 7.3 8.0 7.7 7.4 7.3 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.5 1993 8.0 7.8 7.4 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.9 1994 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1 6.1 1995 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.6 1996 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 1997 5.9 5.7 5.5 4.8 4.7 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.9 1998 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 1999 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.2 2000 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.0 2001 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.7 5.0 5.3 Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3 1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4 1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 1997 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 1998 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.7

To: Les H who wrote (1208)	1/1/2002 3:17:31 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29596

20-week Cycle cycle tendencies 10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low Sep 21 start start start 965 none Oct 16 green green green 1097 +132 1101 +136 N.A. Nov 7 yellow green green 1115 + 18 1126 + 29 1052 - 42 Nov 30 red yellow green 1139 + 24 1163 + 48 1054 - 61 Dec 26 green yellow green 1149 + 10 1173 + 34 1114 - 25 Jan 16 yellow red yellow 1148 - 1 1164 + 15 1148 - 1 Feb 8 red red yellow Mar 5 green green yellow Mar 28 yellow green yellow Apr 19 red yellow red May 14 green yellow red Jun 6 yellow red red Jun 28 red red red