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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chispas who wrote (15876)12/26/2001 7:21:59 PM
From: Chispas  Respond to of 99280
 
Santa Leaves a Rally Under The Tree

December 26, 2001

by Lance Lewis

Asia was mixed last night. Europe was closed this morning, and the
US futures were around flat. We opened slightly lower and then went
on a Harrier jet move that took us straight up to the high of the day.
From there we flopped along sideways for most of the day before
sliding back down the other side of the mountain to give back about
half the day’s gains. The NASDAQ traded a little worse off and gave
back the majority of its gains. The proximate cause of the selloff was
supposedly because Bin Laden was possibly still alive and going to
be making a TV appearance. Volume was extremely light (.8 bil on
the NYSE and 1.1 bil on the NASDAQ.) Breadth was 2 to 1 positive on
the NYSE and a little less than that on the NASDAQ.

There wasn’t much in the way of news today. It began as the usual
quarter end mark-up but ended with a bit of a fizzle. The major
indexes (ex- the SOX and NASDAQ) all managed to push up to a new
high for the move or at least near it. Argentina’s default on Monday
was a nonevent for the markets (obviously, it wasn’t such a nonevent
for Argentina’s creditors.) And nobody seems too concerned about
growing tensions between Pakistan and India. So, that leaves us with
just a few days to go till the books are closed on 2001 and all the bulls
have to do is coast into the year-end. Baring some sort of wild event,
I suppose they will do just that. How stocks and the euro (which
finally debuts as a real currency) trade in January will be the next big
things to watch for. The trend has been for stocks to put in lows
during the preannouncement season and then rally on the actual
news of the earnings. However, that pattern doesn’t seem to be
repeating thus far. If this entire rally off the lows was just one big
“bet” by mutual fund managers as I think it was and has nothing to do
with the fundamentals, then stocks should begin selling off again
once people begin to see the data in Q1 in the form of guidance that
things aren’t getting dramatically better as many of the lofty
valuations on these stocks have already priced in…

prudentbear.com