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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	12/26/2001 3:28:51 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, I guess it is just us folks who have Boxing Day holiday that are moping around the net today:0) We in Hong Kong retained all of our holidays, be they Christian, Buddhist, Chinese traditional or Banker’s days. The Queen's birthday is replaced by an additional Buddahist holiday. <<end of 2001 is nigh and there has NOT been a financial meltdown. From 1,300, the S&P500 is down to 1,100, which is only 16%>>, less risk-less opportunity cost of 8% makes 24%, which, at least in my book, qualifies as an absolute and horrendous outcome requiring 24-36 months of risk-less returns to breakeven on. <<normal annual oscillation over the last umpteen decades>> Normal for who? <<Even the dreaded techstock Nasdaq is only down 500 from 2,500 = 20%>> 28%, inclusive of above mentioned risk-less return, and requiring 18 months of frothy, foaming at the mouth mania to breakeven, inclusive of above mentioned risk-less return. <<GDP and other economic indicators are all fine>> This is what folks and MeDroogies said 12 months ago, and it was not true then, is not true now, and cannot be true for the coming 12 months. Everything is pointing down, except the market, until it disappoints again, minus another 24%. How many 24% do you have? I will bet less than Uncle Greenspell has 0.5%. <<A USA recession has finally been detected, which looks more like a hedgehog for scariness compared with the tyrannosaur we've been waiting for>> Give it time. The Japanese hedgehog scared no one and in fact, judging by the bravado, scares no one, not even the Japanese. <<effortless wealth is continuing to flood the planet. Much of it in the way that oxygen ... is flooding the planet>> Not wealth, Maurice, paper. By the way, oxygen, in enough quantity at sufficient pressure, kills. Same with a lot of paper at proper velocity. Do not believe me? Just wait the required time. <<Gold is least subject to sudden swoons in value>> Excellent, you may have just uttered the magic sentence for 2002, thank you. <<Cash, as in Argentina's case, can be suddenly converted to an empty promise>> Agree. <<Shares reflect productive enterprise. How much one should earn is the hard part>> Reflect only, and with less production, so follows lowered value reflectivity. <<Gold earns no return>> You think not? Well, let me now start a model portfolio here for the thread, starting with this post, with USD 200,000 paper money credit, and see what I can do with same over the course of 365 days. Day #1: Portfolio composition = 100% USD cash Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	12/26/2001 5:59:17 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, feel the market, impute the force, and believe ... I think/hope/pray and prey... Message 16830817 Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	12/27/2001 1:12:41 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, concerning the score keeping, from yet another perspective of the same rotting mess ... it was kindly pointed out to me by a cyber pal that the following is so ... "December 26, 2001 -- The Fed isn't the only outfit that manipulates. The guys who construct the stock averages do their own manipulation, which is one of the reasons why the BIG averages show a lot more oomph on the upside than do the portfolios of the average investor. For instance, we know that from it's high, the very broad Wilshire 5000 is down 27%, which is probably better than the way the average stockholder's portfolio has fared. Of course, you can't really manipulate the Wilshire -- there are just too many stocks in a 5000 stock average. But the Dow and the Nasdaq have the ability to kick out bum stocks and put in (hopefully) new winners. For instance, in its effort to show growth, Dow Jones put in a dividend-less stock for the first time in its history -- the name of the stock is Microsoft. Actually, from the 1982 bear market low, only 10 of the 30 Dow Industrials still grace that venerable average. As far as the Nasdaq is concerned, there have been a lot of er "replacements." This month 13 Nasdaq 100 issues were booted out and 13 "better" issues will be put in. Of the 13 who have been booted, their average price had declined by an astounding 93%. So you can see that there is a concerted effort by the "average-makers" to keep their averages growing in the best tradition of "growth America." There's been a lot of talk about Warren Buffett's prediction that over the next ten years we can expect average returns on stocks of about 7% a year -- and that include dividends. Of course the reason for Buffett's "conservative" estimate is that stocks have already priced in major growth over the period ahead. The only surprise the market would have to deal with is if that growth doesn't materialize. If growth doesn't arrive, as the great majority of analysts promise, then we'll have a resumption of the bear market. It's as simple as that. And speaking of the 7% growth, well-known analyst Don Hays notes, "With deflation being a dominant force over the next few years, it will be extremely difficult for corporations to grow their pension assets faster than the 7% growth that Mr. Buffett expects. That will mean huge pension liabilities for those large corporations with large pension funds, and that liability will have to come out of current earnings. In my opinion, that is another big skeleton that is in the closet of the large-cap indices and large-cap stocks." (Don Hays can be reached on the Internet)." from the Dow Theory Letter. Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	12/27/2001 1:44:58 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

Northern Trust weighs in with an opinion on Greenspan's tenure @ Fed: northerntrust.com DAK

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	1/5/2002 9:04:48 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, between this from CB ... Message 16850359 <<Gold is money, a store of value, it's not an investment, IMO>> and this from CB ... Message 16867177 <<Gold is a commodity, IMO. Trading gold for goods and services isn't different in any way from barter conceptually ... The owner might be willing to deal, but you'll have to haggle>> I believe the case has been made that gold is a speculative store of value, a flavor of money, but requires haggling over the exchange rate. Given that gold mines produce this money with no political boss answerable to electorates, and total cost of production is USD 270 or there abouts, the mines are thus worthy of some investment interest, and the money itself, at cost of same USD 270, is also of some speculative interest, especially by the so far exceptional cases of Argentina, Turkey, Russia, Thailand, India, Japan, Korea, ..., surviving Aztecs, surviving Global Star investors, Enron pensioners, and soon China. Exception list is getting longer:0) Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	1/23/2002 8:39:07 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, … Model portfolio is on the move … Message 16830817 The 20 contracts of NEM (.nemmd) January strike 20 Puts expired worthless:0) Given that I had shorted a bunch of covered June Call 20 (.nemfd) at USD 2.4/share equivalent on the 23rd for my real portfolio, I see no reason why I do not do same for Model Portfolio on the same date. Shall we say 20 contracts? We pocket USD 4,775 net of USD 25 commissions. Message 16945416 “Today (my last night) I sold some NEM June Covered Call, strike price 20. Expecting NEM to meander at 20 between now and then, or to drop due to merger dilution” To limit risk, we close out the 20 contracts of short June (.nemfe) Call strike 25 at USD 0.70/shr, realizing USD 450 gain (already netted USD 25 of commissions). So, the model portfolio is well on its way: Short Japan Yen 13,100,000 of Yen w/ interest rate at 1.125% per annum. Short March (.nemow) Put strike 17.5, 10 contracts Short June (.nemrw) Put strike 17.5, 10 contracts Short January 2003 (.viemc) Put strike 15, 20 contracts, Short June (.nemfd) Call strike 20, 20 contracts, and Long January 2003 (.vieah) Call strike 40, 20 contracts; Cash at USD 309,850 Gross portfolio value is at US$ 303,100, less Jyen debt valued at 134 exchange rate results in Net portfolio value of USD 205,338, a rise of 2.67% YTD on the original USD 200,000. We are on track to show a 15-20% for the year 2002, trading just NEM and its derivatives, backed by Aztec relic only ;0) The real portfolio is on the move as well: Message 16941878 Message 16942054 Message 16945416 Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (12120)	3/15/2002 9:19:11 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Maurice, Model Portfolio: NEM March Put 17.5 expired worthless. Short Japan Yen 13,100,000 of Yen w/ interest rate at 1.125% per annum. Short June (.nemrw) Put strike 17.5, 10 contracts Short January 2003 (.viemc) Put strike 15, 20 contracts, Short June (.nemfd) Call strike 20, 20 contracts, and Long January 2003 (.vieah) Call strike 40, 20 contracts; Cash at USD 309,850 Gross portfolio value is at US$ 301,250, less Jyen debt valued at 128 exchange rate results in Net portfolio value of USD 198,900, a decline of 0.55% YTD on the original USD 200,000. We are on track to breaking even for the year, trading just NEM and its derivatives ;0) On the real portfolio, there has been positive development on the exchange rate markets, and the March series of NEM put/call expired, with a bunch of NEM called away, and I got nipped on the finger by Furukawa. Cash 45% (37% Euro, 10% CHF, 8% AUSD, 3% HKD, 42% USD) Bonds 22% Gold and platinum metals 6% Rental Real Estate 21% (value at lower of cost and market) Non-income generating Thai beach land 1.3% Equity 5.2% (AAPTY, AMGN, AOL, AU, AWK, CHL, CMCSK, CWT, NEM, SNE, SWC, Furukawa Electric, Hongkong & Shanghai Banking HK.5, …). I have outstanding short positions in NEM June covered Call 20, and a long position in RDN August Put 40. YTD appreciation @ 0.77%, on track to 5% wopper for 2002. Chugs, Jay Ref: Message 17174382