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To: John Madarasz who wrote (26204)	12/26/2001 12:29:03 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

pretty amazing that people even consider this a recession-g- I agree that people are really in DENIAL, would that make this the first phase of the bear? My opinion is that OBL will try to bait Isreal or Arab state into war at the same time INDIA and paki goes at it. How would the US justify aiding INDIA Isreal against the ARAB world. Then VOILA! Arab west war. The fact that COT is LONG oil and gas and massivly short index's, currencies and other comodities is an odd mix pointing to Oil supply issues IMHO.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (26204)	12/26/2001 12:31:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 209892

I've talked to some local small business owners who have no such expectation since things are already so bad for them ... I do know a number in the energy business who do expect a real turnaround by early '03, though. I am surprised how many like the energy sector -- esp nat gas right now. I think it's a mistake -- the price is bouncing because so many got so long expecting a repeat of last year and had to unwind when it didn't happen, IMO. Demand (as in reduced) is going to be key, IMO.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (26204)	12/27/2001 9:23:21 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Johnny....short interest on COMPX up again in Dec....all-time record high.. I'm trying- really, I am- to repeat ("Its such a lagging indicator, its such a lagging indicator")..still having trouble convincing myself-g,ng I'd still prefer to see that last up wave, VIX getting near 20 (gulp), short interest to go down, and Jan. liquidity pump to be over for bear case to take over. Like some counts on the thread, I think this thing has to go hard down starting in the next day or two, or this down ain't much of nothing (as we say in da South)