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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (12166)	12/26/2001 11:37:52 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Ramsey, I do not know the answers. I just got 'feelings' of unease in such an easy paper money atmosphere. Given that Japan had 'consumed' more cement than the US in recent times, I suspect the paper money has solidified in the mountains and seas of Japan. Japanese banks are paying their depositors zero rate, buying JGBs and USTRY, earning a margin, whittling down their astronomical pile of bad and non-performing debt, paying idle employees, and is still sinking into poverty swamp (still no recorded profit). A flip to the upside of Japan interest rate can pulverize bank's JGB positions and USTRY holdings, and so I think Japan will try to avoid this, with the prayer of Bush, until they cannot, which should be when Japan’s standard of living is equalized with that of its geographic neighbors. And so, the docile Japanese population labours on, watching their retirement nest egg disappear, from banks, postal savings, insurance companies, pension funds, emerging markets, developed markets … and the Model Gold Portfolio:0) To summarize ... the actual money is long gone (cement) or spoken (JGB, pension requirement) for, and only cognitive dissonance is still working to maintain an image of the money on the soapy suds of the bubble's afterbirth, unless one counts the money that can still be brought back from the USTRY. Chugs, Jay