Hi Maurice, compared to my allocation except cash, your 100% allocation to QCOM indicates a substantially higher conviction on own acumen, to say the very least. I suppose my high cash and non-equity allocations also points to conviction of a sort, namely I am in an environment I do not understand. Our respective beliefs in own ability to understand is what separates us, with you believing <<quite quickly … will see the recovery as people around the world go about the business of improving their lives, which means buying the technological revolution and working to produce it>> and with me believing, ‘so what? At zipdotzero profit, what should the valuation be, in view of all the problems given life by all of Greensput and cronies’.
<<NO COLLAPSE>>
Eh, hold on, Maurice, minus 27% is catastrophic in my book. Not the end of the world, mind you, but catastrophic …
Message 16833879
<<I expect initially there will be deflation, but inflation will not be far behind as borrowers are relieved of some of their debts by punishing of savers who loaned their savings in good faith, only to be cruelly abused by the creators and guardians of the currencies they hold>>
I agree, but, eh, Maurice, given that there are fewer savers than debtors in most locales, and given that government-sponsored robbery scars savers, I would expect …
(a) inflation will offer only temporary respite to the indebted but will not make them richer in the aggregate
(b) inflation will make most worth less, some worthless, and few much more
(c) inflation, concentrated on services, will do very nasty things to folks planning retirement, constituting more of a majority all the time
(d) people facing the prospect of nasty happenings will plan accordingly, or depress and panic when unable to plan with the resources available
(e) depressed and panicky people do not make good decisions
(f) bad decisions lead to horrid results
(g) deflation of manufactured goods will continue, not influenced and not influence-able by service inflation, and in fact is made worse by service inflation, as manufacturing assets will seek centers of lower support cost
(h) organizations established to sell and service goods manufactured at a certain price point and gross margin will be hard pressed to adapt to a world of manufacturing deflation, remain profitable, and stay cohesive, resulting in consolidation, and yikes, unemployment
<<The great human globalisation and technological revolution, CDMA and CDNA in the vanguard, are only in the zygote stage>>
Maurice, you need to think through your expected scenario, to its ultimate and extreme end, and not simply treat other folks money as a score keeping unit, but as savings, worked and lived hard for, with claims on productive assets and Aztec totems, enforcing a harsh economic logic on the world, ever globalizing, arbitraging differences in embedded wealth, abilities, advantages, resources, values, markets, prices, policies, etc, and if and when not globalizing, eventual collapse, presumably.
<<Things are just warming up>>
… because you are in the 100% allocation microwave oven.
<<We are NOT going to go into a multiyear era of atavistic regression to 19th century barbarism of warring fiefdoms>>
We may, if globalization stops, and if it doesn’t stop, after <<a spot of tidying up needed after the irrational exuberance of the millennium celebrations. A rearranging of the deckchairs and who gets to sit in them>>, many will find no chairs available, close at hand, or at the right price, purchaseable with the savings they do not have.
<<Dow 16,000 Feb 2002 is looking unlikely at this late stage. But it's not that far away>>
Yes, I do see DOW at 16,000, and also one share of GE currency buying a cup of coffee :0)
Are you positioned? I am not either, but better positioned. For my 5% hedge, I guess I could live with Uncle Al’ top speed, as long as gold goes to USD 2,800 an ounce.
Chugs, Jay |
