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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carson who wrote (26576)	12/27/2001 3:08:35 PM
From: TechTrader42	Respond to of 52237

Seriously, John, I don't know. I know what I did, but I don't think it has any bearing on what you should do, because it all comes down to speculation, and my guess is as good as yours. Maybe your guess is better. The COMPX chart that mattie linked to is interesting, with the upper trendline. To me, QQQ doesn't look like a sure thing either way at this point. I don't know which would be more reliable, trendlines or volatility indicators hitting extreme levels. But the Naz CI's have not yet peaked, so they're not saying something different than the trendlines mattie linked to. That doesn't mean there won't be a reversal yet, because the CI's don't always hit 100. But there is some room for a possible move to the upside. It's a tossup, I think. I focused on the Dow and SPX, because of the CI's and maybe in part because of yesterday's late-day sell-off. Again, it's not a sure thing. I believe the SPX and Dow could go either way from here, solely because the market is unpredictable. I make my own choices based on the charts, volatility indicators and the like, but the choices could be wrong. The trick in trading isn't to avoid being wrong, but to avoid staying wrong. That's a hard lesson to learn. Inevitably, there are going to be lots of times when we're wrong. It's going to be interesting seeing what candlesticks we get at the end of the day. I post only to add my nonsense to the mix, to generate discussion, not to persuade people to take a position on the market. I sometimes give an indication on which direction I think the market will take, but I'm wrong at least half the time. I don't know which way the market will go. And my indicators are just a few among a zillion. For every indicator saying one thing, there's another saying the opposite. The market is a trickster. That's why it comes down to money management, to endeavoring to limit any losses. With everyone posting their various opinions on the market, we can get a wider view, and sometimes a sense on which way it's more likely to go. Do I have that sense now, from all the postings? No. Opinion seems to be divided. Is anyone always right? No. Is there one system we should all be following? No. Late-day ramblings. Another lunatic-fringe PM will get lobbed my way, and automatically make it into the trash can. One of my devoted readers has a remarkable aim for the trash can, thanks to SI's options. Because of my note suggesting the possibility of shorting, I'll be accused of kicking our great nation when it's down. The market goes up and down, kiddies. My view on the market: "If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing again" - Terry Venables