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Strategies & Market Trends : LindyBill's Ballroom -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (221)	12/27/2001 11:33:33 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 248

well, just think--one more trading day and you get a chance to wipe the slate clean and make a whole new set of mistakes! :0) tb@*&^#!market.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (221)	12/28/2001 4:20:51 PM
From: Mathemagician	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 248

I have a very good record at losing money this year. Sorry to hear that, Lindy, though I have a feeling you are not alone. For my part, since the start of my swing trading career in August I have a pretty good record at being wrong in my calls. I have been wrong on 5 out of 8 of my closed trades so far. That's a success rate of only 38%. However, due to the strategy of cutting losses quickly and letting wins run my record at making money is much better. I am ahead 24.4% before txns and taxes, 10.8% after. Just opened a PSFT short at 42 today. Stop is at 42.75. Doesn't look like a great entry so far, but the risk/reward is compelling. Time will tell. The three most significant areas for improvement are: 1. Patience when opening a trade - I do a pretty good job picking entry points but then don't wait for them. This is a clear illustration of emotion affecting my trading. I just keep worrying that I'll miss a good opportunity so I pull the trigger too soon. As an example, I wanted to short QCOM at 61.5 with a stop at 62.5 (Nov 27), but it took a quick drop down to 60 so I pulled the trigger. It went back up to 62 a couple of days later before dropping precipitously. 2. Setting stops on winners so that I don't get stopped out in the middle of a run - I think that this is an art and that it will come with experience. An example is buying SEBL at 13 on Sept 27 and riding to 20. Set my stop at 19 figuring that 45% in a couple days was pretty good. However, SEBL never got lower than 16 and is now over 28. Certainly nothing to complain about, but I did leave quite a bit on the table. 3. Reversing my position when proven wrong - In most cases, reversing my position after getting stopped out would have resulted in a very profitable trade. Lack of confidence and txn costs keep me from actually implementing this strategy. I'm going to try this on paper for a while (including past trades) to see if I can trust it as a general rule. Anyway, all in all I'd say the swing trading experiment has been a success so far. I think keeping it restricted to a portion of my overall portfolio helps a lot. Nice to see the thread waking up again, by the way. M