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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H James Morris who wrote (136213)	12/29/2001 7:36:26 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

James, I noticed that the stock of Amazon has traded up since the end of the holiday season. There seems to be a lot of positive articles, analyst comments, etc. This is why I apparently am not good at the stock market. 1. A year ago today analysts had a concensus estimate of revenue for Q4 2001 for Amazon of $1.7 billion. The bar was lowered so much it is now about $1 billion. However, the plus is we may see some upside to the current $1 billion projection. No one is even thinking about a number above $1.7 billion. The good news is Amazon may only be below a year ago projection by 41% instead of 42%. That is good news?? 2. Amazon is losing on-line market share in a very large way. Amazon may have revenue increase year over year for Q4 of about 10%. Yahoo's stores mostly composed of dual channel brick and mortar stores will show a year over year increase of 186%. Clearly since Amazon may be up 10% and the Yahoo stores 186% on-line sales are up. The problem is the growth is not going to Amazon and most of Amazon's 10% increase is overseas. Just a year agao Amazon was doing about as much business on-line as all their competitors combined. Now Amazon's revenue is a drop in the bucket compared to the entire on-line retail sales. I do not see the good in this atleast from the perspective of Amazon's future. By the way, the AOL stores were also up almost 200%. 3. Three years ago the entire group of analysts and Amazon bulls were predicting a full year profit for Amazon for fiscal 2001. Now everyone is wondering if Amazon can turn a pro-forma profit for just the very best quarter for a retailer which is Q4. I do not not see the improvement here. Please help me with this. I am lost. By the way, there was article in the e-commerce times that talking about the "manager" of the fulfillment center in Findley Nevada driving a $30 puerchase that missed the last shipment leaving the wharehouse to the buyer in Sacramento. Such a nice touch don't you think or maybe it was for publicity. Finally, there were 26,000 orders through Amazon during the last day of shipping and Amazon crowed that 99% made it to their destination by December 24th. How about, 1% of 26,000 orders never made it in time for Christmas. This means 260 people were disappointed. Why did managers of the fulfillment centers not drive them to their destination? I really need help with this;-)