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To: mishedlo who wrote (140808)	12/29/2001 2:59:27 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

hey mish, my view remains not nearly so ominous in the short term as others on this thread. until the FED stops doing this... biz.yahoo.com ...and when they have finished firing their interest rate bullets will i return to my extremely bearish posture. ild has a posted a link issued by comstock partners prior to my post and i agree with that assessment in principle. however, i don't think it matters in the short to medium term as the market will trade higher based on spin and the recovery thesis. whether it's BS or not really makes no difference...the Fed is pumping, M&A is humming, analysts are upgrading and most companies have lowered expectations so much that this quarter's earnings will look to be consistent with that recovery metric. back in jan 2001, the nasdaq busted through its' short term downtrend line. however, many on this thread pointed out that the long-term downtrend line remained intact. well, now that long-term downtrend line has been lost too. with regards to this, i am in agreement with lucretious...looking at charts is like looking in a rearview mirror. nonetheless, there are a LOT of people dependent on a return to the 'old days' and they have all the ducks lined up for them. they will ramp this market armed with all the octane that have outlined above...liquidity, FED, M&A, analyst machine, technicals, achievable earnings secondary to low-balled guidance, etc. sure, there may be opportunities to short for the long haul , but it remains my most humble opinion that the money is on the long side for now. if you need to make consistent cash in this market, you must have long exposure here. the road will not be a strait line and admittedly, i see some room for shorts here. but frankly, to me it's for hedge purposes more than anything else. this market will be ramped in short order. am holding... AMZN basis 10.25 TQNT basis 11.10 QDEL basis 7.79 RFMD basis 11.97 i will be putting on a few shorts this monday as a hedge. however, i foresee staying net long. i'll have my shorts posted when i put them in play this monday. hope you have a great weekend and that your holiday's are festive. rack 'em and stack 'em. (~)^(~)