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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ali Chen who wrote (66533)	12/28/2001 8:27:34 PM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 275872

"You probably should count not the cost of finished CPU, but the cost of sorted and partially tested wafers." Yep. But I don't buy it, at least for Athlons. I suspect that pretty much all of these processors in suspended animation are Durons. How long can it take to finish testing, package and ship the processors? Three weeks? Likely less. The rumors are that AMD will ship ~8.7 million CPUs, but half of them are going to be Durons. Due to the rumored P4 shortage, if AMD could ship more Athlons, they likely could have done it. I suspect that actually more than half of the shipments this Q will be Durons, with a substantial percentage coming from the die bank. At a guess, the increase in Athlons will be 300-400k, and the rest of the increase over Q3 will be Durons. Otherwise, the expected ASP would be closer to $100 than $75...

To: Ali Chen who wrote (66533)	12/28/2001 9:08:37 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Ali, Re: <You probably should count not the cost of finished CPU, but the cost of sorted and partially tested wafers. Which is probably not more than $20 apiece.> Yes. Consider that portion of inventory which is CPU wafers is mostly going to be Durons(IMO) -- $449,000,000 of inventory could represent a very substantial number... Getting to be worth less every day. tgptndr