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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (109999)	12/29/2001 1:27:11 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

This is not a dot.com company but in a way it is worse since it is seen as a serious patent holder. the first stage of the bear was all the dotcoms getting slammed. people didn't think it would affect the "real" tech cos in telecom and such. this is why denial of the bubble persisted into summer of 2000. when the IT bubble burst and was finally recognized as such, it was of course too late to get out for many. but interestingly, the new phase of denial is that it is OK for the broader market (S&P500) to trade at record PEs of 25 or more (45 if you want to compare apples to apples), which is higher than at any other peak in history. (it is higher than other market tops even if you assume peak earnings from 2000 return instantaneously). so i think the next phase will be the S&P and the DOW getting killed as they revert to some semblance of historical mean. either one assumes that a mean reversion will take place, or one assumes a random walk (a/k/a "permanently high plateau"), in which case one must swallow the concomitant demise of the equity risk premium... personally, i think mean reversion is more likely, and within that context, it might be useful to try to remember what happened to stocks with high PEs before the bubble began. re: qcom, i think they will continue to use up whatever money they earn on questionable investments such as moneylosing carriers, until the key patents expire or otherwise lose value. just a hunch which is my humble opinion... of course, i would prefer to be wrong on this point and see them institute a hefty dividend if they are really so good at making money as their valuation seems to imply. history's irony will be that qcom eventually does pay a dividend, is my guess (but i don't think it will be the exact pot at the end of the rainbow some expect). but where it will trade in the meantime is anybody's guess.

To: limtex who wrote (109999)	12/29/2001 10:00:26 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

I said a year ago that I believed that Qcom is in the same pattern as 96-99. A huge trading range between 38-62 almost earily similear. My belief is Qcom will see mid 40's before it rallies back into 50's, could even test the lows. I dont forcee Qcom from droping much below 42-44 unless things get real ugly. After looking at many individual charts it seems that a 5-10% drop in Naz/sox will ocur in 1Q then we should have a good 10-20% rally after that I have no clue what will happen. The Bear will either end or the last horrific leg down will begin. If you look at MSFT as a leader of this market then look at SMH/SOX/QQQ/QCOM and other leaders a reverse H&S is takinging place. Qcom could go to at least 48 at worst low 40's after that should be pretty good. I am currently short the QQQ's and SMH(semi-holders). I was long oil and index oil calls until friday. I have no long exposure, but will buy qcom at 45(if it gets there.