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To: sun-tzu who wrote (140824)	12/29/2001 5:40:43 AM
From: sun-tzu	Respond to of 436258

ECRI weekly index hits 5-month high in latest week biz.yahoo.com

To: sun-tzu who wrote (140824)	12/29/2001 10:04:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Sun-Tzu what do you make of this Q&A From Mish to Isopatch ===================================================== Isopatch what do you make of this. I am new to the thread so apologies if this has been discussed before. softwarenorth.net Small speculators have gotten creamed betting on natural gas all year. Now COTs have taken that side of the bet as small speculators are now out. Howver, large Speculators are hugely short. Someone is very very wrong here and a move could be huge if someone has to cover IMO. What are your favorite plays at the moment (both oil and NG) and why if you do not mind. I am considering leap calls if appropriate. Thanks. M =========================================================== Hi M. Large & small specs are usually wrong vs commercials. Expecially true in a very weather sensitive commodity like NG during a major shift in temperature conditions as we've seen in just he past week. On top of that we just got an OPEC agreement today. Even if that breaks down in a month or two? Right now it's a plus. And crude COTs are even more bullishly skewed than NG. If this hard freeze continues for another week or two, specs will be forced into major short covering which will drive up NG prices. Savvy players know this and I expect they'll buy into the market in the 1st 1/2 of next month to try and run of the shorts buy stops. IMHO, could be some real fireworks on the upside, as soon as next week, unless another spate of mild temperatures show up on the 10 day forecast maps by later part of next week. If that weren't enough, Monday is the final day for individual tax selling to establish losses in this sector which has been badly battered all year. Selling is already oveer in issues showing a lot of strength during the past week or more. Other stocks probably still have some selling to go Monday before they start running to the upside. Right now running the largest sector weighting in the patch since Summer 2000. In other words...huge. Long EPEX, CRK, PQUE & CRZO in sm NG exploration and development companies. DVN in lg cap NG E&Ps. In drilling, DO. In oil and NG equipment & services: HOFF, NSS & MWP. Sm cap APL in NG pipeline/gatherers. And in the tankers: VLCCF and NAT. Will probably trade in and out of some of those names as the trend develops and further spotlights the strongest performers. Isopatch