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To: AllansAlias who wrote (26368)12/29/2001 7:56:59 PM
From: The Freep  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Thanks for posting that update, Allan.

So, we've got the commercials still heavily net short, but covering for three weeks. Then we've got some people posting this week that there were lots and lots of put purchases on the indexes, skewing the put/call ratios. I shoulda bookmarked the folks who claimed that it had to be the commercials shorting, cuz we'll know next Friday and we can go back and berate those posters for misinformation (online misinformation??? SHOCKING!).

Yet, at the same time as seeing the commercials cover, Allan, you said you increased your positional shorts. What have you seen in the market action to make you do that? The inability of tech to rally up to even near its Dec 6th high? The inability of the S+P to surmount that 1170 resistance? Something more sinister? The current up/down actions of the market seem pretty tough to read wave-wise, at least to a rank amateur like me. But did you see some possible wave conclusion with yesterday's marginal new near-term highs in the indices?

My goal for 2002 is to stop doing stupid things. Luckily, asking folks like you questions is one of the smarter things I do, so I'm afraid you're not rid of me quite yet.

the freep



To: AllansAlias who wrote (26368)12/30/2001 6:51:33 PM
From: UnBelievable  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Thanks

On another issue, what are you thoughts concerning the best chart periods for wave analysis particularly from an intraday futures trading perspective?



To: AllansAlias who wrote (26368)1/4/2002 3:40:59 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Combined COT Update

The COT report this week covers the week ending Dec 28, so no recent action is included. Also note that as with each end of quarter report, there is a sharp drop in open interest.

No change in the overall stance of the Commercials this week. 
            COMMS           LARGE           SMALL
This Wk     -77,052 +.2%    -1,928   ....   +78,980 -5.1%
Last Wk     -77,229 +8.7%   -5,965   ....   +83,193 -6.0%
3 Weeks     -84,628 +5.9%   -3,903   ....   +88,531 -4.4%
4 Weeks     -89,979  ....   -2,660   ....   +92,640  ....
A negative percentage indicates the group got shorter/less long and a positive percentage indicates they got longer/less short. Percentage change is not shown for small numbers.

There was however a noteworthy increase in the Commercials NDX short position:
ND+NQ futures:
          Comm   Large  Small
Last Wk   -4932    -73   5005
This Wk   -7939   2349   5590


Below is a crude chart showing the Commercials' short position since the extreme set at the Mar 6, 2001 report. The vertical axis is the number of contracts short and the horizontal is a column for each week.

135,000  :
130,000  |
125,000  |
120,000  |
115,000  ||
110,000  ||
105,000  ||                         |
100,000  ||               :       .||
 95,000  ||        |  :  .|. ::...|||           .
 90,000  ||        |::|  |||.||||||||           ||
 85,000  ||:       ||||..||||||||||||.         .|||
 80,000  |||    :  |||||||||||||||||||        .||||..
 75,000  |||| |.|  |||||||||||||||||||        |||||||
 70,000  |||| |||  |||||||||||||||||||       ||||||||
 65,000  |||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||      :||||||||
 60,000  |||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||:    |||||||||
 55,000  ||||||||.|||||||||||||||||||||||||:|||||||||
 50,000  ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
A reminder that my numbers are based on virtual S&P contracts by taking all the index futures (DJ, RL, MD, SP, SP mini, ND, ND mini) and then weighting and combining the positions.

Commercials change in individual markets from last week:

SP+es   ND+nq   DJ      MD      RL
+2.6%   -61.0%  +1.3%   -12.8%  +4.9%
(See the message I am replying to for the previous update. ccoott)


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