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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FaultLine who wrote (15042)	12/29/2001 9:16:39 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Stratfor's assessment of Pakistan lacked a complete analysis of the Chinese motives. China has its own problem with Muslim terrorists and is not as likely to throw in against the US as it once was; the Western business is too useful to their economy. As for Musharraf, it would seem that it is all in the timing. He cannot rebuild Rome in a day. Like a sniper, he must carefully choose targets and demonstrate the spoils won to his populace, building support for a policy of containment of extremism. Pushing him to move too fast puts him at risk of a coup from within his divided military. I don't believe it's about 'whether' Musharraf can deliver, but 'when'. And I hope US and India officials are sufficiently pragmatic to grant the necessary time, without making him look like a puppet. In short, Musharraf can deliver. But there had better be bigger, juicier carrots delivered, and efforts need to be made to avoid making it look like he's negotiating with a gun to his head all the time.