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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (140935)	12/31/2001 11:54:52 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Haim: I'm also removed from New York (being a Canuck), so the view from this end may well be a bit more or less biased than what one gets from Bloomberg et al. I tend to be most interested in what is selling, what is not selling, what inventories are like, and what the buying mood is like. I am also very interested in the condition of the various "pipelines" that carry goods to end users (trucking, shipping, air cargo, as well as actual distributor inventories, etc.), as much useful info. often comes from these sources. I also try to keep up with the global picture as much as is possible, as a narrow focus on one's own jurisdiction can often lead to a sucker punch from abroad. As a result of this approach, I have a very different perspective than the New York fraternity. Most of the evidence I acquire screams of a slowly tightening negative economic spiral. In general, sales continue to dwindle, unemployment continues to swell, debt levels (both corporate and consumer) continue to expand dramatically and the confidence levels out there are shaky. Profits haven't been consequential for the last few years and now we are entering a "profitless prosperity" period. For me, no profits spell more contraction. As we are already into an acknowledged recession, further contraction sure doesn't smack of a near term rebound. On the positive side of the ledger, we have the largest money print in history, falling interest rates and cheap energy costs. All three help to alleviate short term economic problems but two of the three may well be reaching limits and the third is historically volatile. Most of those calling for a near term rebound seem short on hard data to support their view as far as I am concerned. Given the insane levels of the current market,it makes more sense to me to continue to dig out the companies that are steaming toward bankruptcy than to search for "value" or "growth" situations as current PEs leave little upside room even when you are a lucky blind squirrel. (g) Best, Earlie