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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (58266)	1/1/2002 12:13:40 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

12/31/02 stock prices: AMAT: 48, an excellent 20% return for the year, outperforming the indexes and most other techs. The stock is in a trading range (40-50) all year, as low semi capacity utilization persists, hindering the return of capacity semiequip purchases until early 2003, when the stock finally takes off. CSCO: 10. The rebound off the 9/01 lows is a dead cat bounce, the fundamentals of the network/telco equip sector show no improvement in 2002 (or 2003), in spite of the recession ending by mid-2002. But at least CSCO does better than JNPR. EMC: 20, a 50% return for the year, as storage is one of the few tech sectors where buying comes back strongly. NTAP does even better. INTC: I don't follow them; my chips are TXN and QCOM. The SOX is up 20% for the year (520 to 620), an excellent return. INTC lags the SOX, as pricing power for PC-related chips comes back later than for other chip segments.

To: Paul V. who wrote (58266)	1/2/2002 11:28:17 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul V, RE: "Jacob, Gottfried, Tito, What do you think will be the estimated prices of AMAT, CSCO, EMC, INTC by the end of 2002. With an economic turnaround I can see substantial gains in technology." Just like Old times Paul, we again find the two of us Old folks more bullish than the Younger folks in this AMAT Thread. We both expect a High of more than 100 for AMAT this year 2002 just like during the last Bull market when you expected 101 and I expected from 120 to 130 (and AMAT did reached 129 on the last trading day of the year 1999!). You Posted then that it was "scary" for us to be expecting 100 when everybody else (another Old folk, Lester e the most senior in this Thread, was Rooting for us then) expected 70 and below. Yes, it was so Scary that I quipped, that probably we were living in a different Dimension from the rest of the Folks in the AMAT Thread! Sorry, Paul, I'm lousy when figuring out end of the year prices. But I do a bit well figuring out Highs for the year. Your DW, NAIC and other Technical tools seem to work well with my non-Technical, non-Fundamental but Sentimental tool which I fondly call --- AMAT YoYo - StairCase system or something like that. Time will tell again what will happen. Que Sera Sera, Doris Day sang, Whatever will be will be ... For you Threaders who haven't been reading Paul's Posts and mine --- be careful. You may want to take note of what we are saying and then act next Bull market around. If you're doing Okay, Please Don't Fix your system if it isn't broken. Both Paul and me have contingency plans if things don't go as planned. My prediction for at least 100 is not final though. I'd like to see first how AMAT behaves this Jan and Feb then make some adjustments --- just like when I predicted AMAT Highs of over 100 the past 2 Bull markets. As for CSCO and EMC, they are Hi-techs that will benefit from the Rising tide of the Market; but I don't follow them closely to have prices for them.