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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35721)	12/31/2001 1:20:33 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 69751

December 31st is an up day on the Nasdaq 100% of the time with 21 up days and ZERO down days since 1971 and is obviously the best trading day of the year. The overall market as shown by the market breadth data at the end of this commentary is in an extremely overbought condition. Traders should be seriously considering hedging their long positions with put options in the QQQ’s and DJI and selected shorts in large cap stocks. The Vix closed below 22.50 on Thursday, indicating a probable 11% retrace in the Nasdaq is on the very near term horizon. Based on this analysis the Nasdaq should fall to 1,750 in the next two weeks. Traders should note that this has been a very successful trend predictor in 2001 but that fact does not necessarily imply continued success into 2002. Use this data only as a guide. Below are some large-cap stocks that consistently drop with the Nasdaq once the VIX closes at 22.50 and below. Prices are based on Thursday’s close. $ Loss % Loss Close Today Target JNPR -9.06 -27% $ 19.35 $ 14.07 JDSU -3.06 -23% $ 8.50 $ 6.56 CSCO -3.69 -19% $ 18.49 $ 15.00 SUNW -2.82 -18% $ 12.81 $ 10.55 ORCL -2.20 -13% $ 13.99 $ 12.18 INTC -3.29 -11% $ 32.67 $ 29.07 IBM -9.16 -8% $ 123.50 $ 113.35 buysellshort.com