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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (153361)	12/31/2001 11:41:23 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: Intel didn't even fall to $15 after terrorists blew up buildings in two major U.S. cities. I find it hard to imagine that investor confidence on such a large cap stock like Intel could fall so far at this point. Right now, Intel's stock (market cap) is priced at 42 times that of AMD. In the only business in which either company makes money, Intel has 3 times the unit sales volume of AMD and has been losing share pretty steadily for 2 years. Just because a stock is a large cap stock doesn't mean it can't go down. If Intel's stock were priced by the market to reflect its CPU market share relative to AMD, it would be about $2.25. If it were valued 4 times as high as AMD it would be $9. If it were valued to reflect its steady loss of market share, it would drop below $1. Intel's ASPs are about twice those of AMD, so those numbers above might reasonable be doubled. But if Intel keeps losing share, it will begin to lose its ASP premium (we've already seen that process begin). The fact that indications are that there will be a severe overcapacity situation later this year, and that both companies would rather lose money than market share, doesn't bode well for Intel's (or AMD's) share price, either.