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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cactus Jack who wrote (17387)	12/31/2001 5:31:30 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Got a down target before heading up? Happy New Year. jpgill As far as they can take us? I think we might be in for a "belated turnip dip" here due to anemic fertilization. (just joking Zeev). Perhaps it is over fertilization as I have it on good authority that the results are similar. Actually I thought 80-100 points over a few days or longer then a nice rally erasing all of that in 1-2 days. Then flat thru expiry. I see we dropped 37 today. How about another 100 to 1850. But I am better off leaving such calls to the comp chart experts. Also I warn that one day does not make me right. I have been on record saying I expected a down day today as well as a down early Jan cause sentiment was nearly 100% that we rally. Looking at options, I saw the same thing. Actually max pain on INTC by a forced reading is 22.5 but that simply is not gonna happen. If it does I sure am buying leap calls on about everything. My eyeball method suggested 32.5 on the nose but it really could be 30 or even 27.5. About one week from expiry I will have a better reading and I am reasonably confident INTC will close within pennies of one of those numbers (32.5 or 30) 27.5 is one hell of a drop from here so I doubt that as well. Thus, I suspect a drop to 30 and a rally to 32.5 or a drop to 27.5 and a rally to precicely 30. Not sure which is more likely. I will let aj or someone else figure out the likely drop in the SOX and Comp should INTC drop to 30 or 27.5. As the SOX goes so will go the index more than likely. Now I suppose the criminal says we have a small 10 point rally on Monday followed by a gap up on tuesday and a big selloff tuesday afternoon. That would fix the most people. Small selloffs/rallies for a few days or longer then we cover all those losses in 2 days and head sideways into the close with a dropping VIX. Such action would screw the most people and a sharp rally right back to QQQ 40 before expiry would toast the most options. If we do not rally back to QQQ 40 by expiry it can get really ugly due to delta hedging. I see no logical stopping point below 40. I guess that says (from an option standpoint) there is every reason to expect a selloff. But all those $ coming into funds at start of year suggests a rally. This is consistent with down then up although not many seemed to care for this theory. M