Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (12355)	1/1/2002 12:18:49 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

In my opinion, the "L" shaped recovery will become apparent. The wealth effect will go further into reverse as refinancings weaken and housing prices fall/stagnate. The Bay Area, NYC, Detroit, and most of America and her citizens have stolen from Peter to pay Paul and now it's time to pay. Fed will ensue tighter money creation policy as Greenspan's power wanes. The bad press on Greenspan is serving as an embarassment to the Fed. Full-employment will no longer be 4% and the Phillips curve comes back into vocabulary. Deflationary forces will ultimately prevail, but this could be after a nasty fight with stagflation. Ingenuity creates growth, not lower debt payment. Ingenuity is created with Investment, which comes from Savings (or Credit). Credit is tighter today for most companies than on 1/01. Since there are no savings, there can be no ingenuity. 2002 will be the year of bankruptcies, foreclosures, and layoffs - first round beginning in late January. My strategy will be one of high dividend income stocks and shorting highflying semiconductor/equipment stocks - IT's equivalent of the steel industry.