Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	12/31/2001 10:23:51 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Respond to of 99280

DlphcOracl Heck of a prediction! Considering that there is not a lot to look forward too until a mid-year retest(according to Zeev)it would be no surprise. Evaluating valuations will show no bias the longer this "bear" exposes her claws. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU AND ALL!

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	12/31/2001 10:25:12 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 99280

Delphi, Imclone is actually the possible signal of a contrary scenario. BMY did not lay out a $ billion in buying 20% and committed another $ billion in milestone payments for the heck of it. The big pharma's pipelines are not that full, and the IMCL/BMY deal might actually be a deal that start a trend. It is very unusual for such a a single deal to close an era, often it opens a new era of consolidation and mergers. So far we only had the AMGN/IMNX and MLNM/CORR deals. Unless that is the end of this mania, so soon after it started, I think that the next few quarters will actually see more overvaluation there. Zeev

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	12/31/2001 11:24:09 PM
From: 1podstock	Respond to of 99280

DlphcOracl..i absolutely agree!...IMCL got Talibanned, having tanked from mid 60s (time of naz 100 addition) to current low 40s. Biotechs have been lofted on air (hopes that a particular drug gets approval to be the next Lipitor, clarinex Vioxx), and when the air gets taken out, it's gonna be ugly. Most of these over-valued, over-hyped biotechs don't have 1/2 the pipelines of MRK, PFE, AHP, LLY.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	1/1/2002 10:36:36 AM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

2002 Biotechnology = 2000/2001 Internet You may have a point. However, I would note one difference in the internet bubble versus biotech. I had thought that the lack of broadband to the home limited the appliciations. Getting optical cables to the home was (and still is) too expensive. The alternatives now (cable, dsl etc) are not appoaching what is needed for clear video streaming. That difference could PARTLY explain why the internet bubble burst and the biotech did not. In addition, biotech is not really that dependent on the economy and that was probably another reason that the stocks held up. I usually avoid biotech stocks but am interested in getting a few interesting names to track this year. JMHO.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	1/1/2002 11:13:22 AM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Biotech Valuations: P/S ratios are as follows (per Yahoo) ABGX 45, AFFX 10, AMGN 16, BGEN 9, CELG 25, CEPH 15, DNA 14 GENZ 13, GILD 30, HGSI 257, IDPH 50, IMCL 120, IMNX 17, MEDI 19, MLNM 22, MYGN 27, PDLI 37, SEPR 33 For comparison, P/S ratios for some high tech high fliers: BRCD 15, BRCM 9, CCMP 9, CIEN 3, EMLX 13, GNSS 15, ISSX 7, JNPR 6, NVDA 10, QCOM 15, QLGC 12, SEBL 7 Also: CSCO 7, INTC 8, MSFT 15, ORCL 8 From Briefing: "The Return To Traditional Valuations This theme started in 2000, with the bubble burst, but continued through 2001. For shorthand purposes, you can now use the following guidelines for almost all stocks with any proven revenue stream. Price/Sales ratios will not be higher than 10 Price/Earnings ratios will not be higher than 40."

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	1/1/2002 12:29:21 PM
From: seminole	Respond to of 99280

Why this prediction may be right: Wall Street will continue to try to pick the best cancer drugs and Biotech stocks without reading or understanding the medical literature. Investors will continue to buy companies with products or potential products they do not understand. High potential return stocks are high risk stocks. (I like to watch the drugs rather than the stock prices of my bio investments.) Why this prediction may be wrong: There are 300 drugs in late stage (phase III) clinical trials. 70-80% of Phase III drugs are approved. The Big Pharma's pipelines are empty. Many of the big revenue drugs of the Big Pharmas come off patent in 2002. The Big Pharmas need drugs. 2002 could and should be the year of biotech buyouts. PS Can you say IMCL?? In January 2000 the stock price was about $23. In January 1999 the stock price was under $10.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (17403)	1/2/2002 11:53:54 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 99280

Biotechnolgy Comments -- FollowUp This is brief followup to my post #17403 from 12/31/01. The Biotechnology Index (BTK) is one of the big losers today, now at 560 as I type, and has blown through its 50 dma of 577. It is now at a two-month low and may well test its more meaningful 200-dma support at 539. Additionally, the short term indicators are weak, with the MACD now dipping into negative territory and the RSI continuing to fall, now at 42.9 from a high of 71 on October 29. Caveat emptor. DlphcOracl