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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (153427)1/2/2002 8:29:05 AM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
wanna BMW, RE: What makes you think, though, that "tech" can follow the same pattern? Is there any kind of nebulous entity that can follow after "tech"?

It is important that I don't think that "tech" is going to follow the same pattern. This whole discussion grew precisely because I said that the "tech" sector DIDN'T need to collapse to see Intel's stock price cut in half, as you maintained.

Heck, Intel's stock price declined a heck of a lot more than that at one point last year and we didn't see the tech sector collapse.

Note also that this is also rather dependent on how we define "tech". As you point out by putting the word in quotes, you recognize the same. Does Amgen qualify as being part of "tech" because it needs a "bio" in the front? I dunno, it's all semantics anyway. The aforementioned Wal-Mart could be classified in tech for all its spending on IT. Another successful non-tech company like UPS could be thought of the same way.

As far as the nebulous entity that could replace "tech", I muse about that all the time. Because of my background, I think about energy and the replacement of fossil fuels. Somewhere along the line someone will make a fuel cell that runs on water and works. Someone might take that even farther and harness atomic energy in a small container. You might be able to buy all the energy you needed for a year in a Coke can at the local Wal-Mart. Maybe Willy Wonka actually IS able to develop a meal in a stick of gum and cure world hunger. Maybe a latter-day Jonas Salk finds a vaccine for cancer. Who knows?

The human mind is a wonderful machine. Don't underestimate its capabilities or its boundaries