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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smh who wrote (5297)	1/1/2002 3:17:58 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

>> don’t know how much of this Rick might attribute to DGI << Zero! NBSC couldn't generate sufficient profit from the equipment business to support a competitive biotech. They blew it and didn't fund DGI during the last window. DGI was draining profit from a high margin business, dragging NBSC down. NBSC finally claimed a post-money valuation of about $14 million for DGI when they gave up majority ownership with a private $5 million from Denmark (BankInvest Biomedical Venture). For those interested, the details are in the NBSC thread. Fortunately, Orcutt was turning the basic business on its ear, and lower margin activities with custom bioprocess equipment were axed. The DGI write down only has about $35K (estimate from memory, please double check) to go, and last quarter should look great and surprise a few people. IMO, the "bioterror trickle" should keep business healthy for some time to come, and DGI just got a milestone from Novo Nordisk. So..... while the entire game was extended into danger territory, it looks like the "cross" play is alive (and well?). I (and some others) had valued the company at $12-15/share, based on second quarter, extending forward. Third quarter came in $1 million shy of what I expected for revenues, but I believe that the second quarter was goosed a bit at the expense of Q3. So..... I now think that it's worth about $10-12 without DGI, and I'm hoping for strong, continued sales growth. If that happens, I'll again extend the valuation target. They retain 47% of DGI. Given that $5 million isn't nearly enough, they'll be diluted rapidly. Nonetheless, it's still tremendous potential leverage. Steve..... did you add the 10% freebie shares to the NBSC yield, the 10% share dividend? Was your return slightly better than 11.25%? edit.... remember, this is a Roach Motel!! (no liquidity)