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Politics : Impeach George W. Bush -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mephisto who wrote (9039)	1/2/2002 1:00:46 PM
From: jttmab	Respond to of 93284

Tony Blair has logged more miles on America's behalf in the Middle East and Central Asia than Colin Powell, according to the Press. Tony Blair is America's best friend. Bush sits at his ranch, relaxes, lifts weights, celebrates the New Year, and Tony Blair goes to India to sort out the mess over there. First the American view... Powell Has Urgency in South Asia By GEORGE GEDDA Associated Press Writer January 2, 2002, 10:26 AM EST WASHINGTON -- The numbers tell the story of why Secretary of State Colin Powell, worried about a South Asian conflagration, has been on the phone almost daily with leaders of India and Pakistan: 1.03 billion people in India and nearly 150 million in Pakistan. With that many people, the two nuclear-armed rivals can't afford to let their differences over Kashmir spin out of control. The reality of their nuclear capability is summed up in a new analysis, based on CIA data, by Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He says India "probably has a small stockpile of nuclear weapons components and could assemble and deploy a few nuclear weapons within a few days to a week. The most likely platform are fighter-bomber aircraft." As for Pakistan, Cordesman says its nuclear weapons also are probably stored in component form. "Pakistan could probably assemble the weapons fairly quickly and has aircraft and possibly ballistic missiles available for delivery," he adds. The somewhat dry prose tends to conceal the enormity of the stakes in the dispute over the Muslim-dominated Kashmir region in India that produced wars between Pakistan and India in 1948 and 1965. The current dustup is the result of a terrorist attack two weeks ago on the Indian Parliament. President Bush and Powell have looked on nervously in recent days as the two countries have issued threats, carried out troop movements and suspended land and air contacts, among other actions. This week, however, both sides seem inclined to climb down from the brink. Pakistan's government arrested a key militant leader accused by India of masterminding the Dec. 13 attack on Parliament, and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee on Tuesday said his nation was open to dialogue with Pakistan if it shed its "anti-India mentality" and took "effective steps to stop cross-border terrorism." The Bush administration has selfish motivations for encouraging a peaceful outcome. It is counting on the Pakistan military to help the United States finish off remnants of the al-Qaida/Taliban terrorist nexus that operates in Afghanistan along Pakistan's border to the west. The U.S. belief is that if tensions worsen, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf will have no choice but to redeploy his forces in the west to the country's eastern border with India, setting back the U.S. anti-terrorism effort. Musharraf is aware that his constituents are far more eager to deal with India than they are about the situation in Afghanistan. Teresita Schaffer, a former ambassador and, like Cordesman, an associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says neither Musharraf nor Vajpayee are trigger-happy. But she does worry about miscalculations leading to a humanitarian catastrophe. As examples, she says a short-term raid by one side could be interpreted as an invasion by the other. Or a false intelligence report could prompt one side to believe that it is in mortal danger, and strike the other with a nuclear blow. "You don't even like to think about the consequences," Schaffer says. Given the stakes, she is surprised that the Bush administration has not yet sent an envoy to the region to reinforce the telephone diplomacy being practiced by Powell and, to a lesser extent, Bush. Sumit Ganguly, a South Asia expert at the University of Texas, agrees. He says a U.S. envoy should be dispatched to demand that the Pakistanis quickly root out all terror bases in the country. The envoy also should call on the Indians to begin autonomy negotiations with Kashmiri leaders who oppose violence, Ganguly adds. The goal would be eventual autonomy for the region under the Indian flag. "The best hope for any kind of redress lies with negotiations," he says. Administration officials are hinting that an envoy may indeed be sent to the region later this month. Meanwhile, Bush is sounding somewhat more optimistic this week about the situation, praising the measures Musharraf has taken against radical Islamic groups based in Pakistan. "He's cracking down hard, and I appreciate his efforts," Bush said Monday. ___ EDITOR'S NOTE -- George Gedda has covered foreign affairs for The Associated Press since 1968.

To: Mephisto who wrote (9039)	1/2/2002 1:04:02 PM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93284

Now a view from a different part of the world.... Blair seeks to pacify nuclear rivals BY RICHARD BEESTON IN DELHI, ZAHID HUSSAIN IN ISLAMABAD AND TOM BALDWIN TONY BLAIR is to act personally to try to bring India and Pakistan back from the brink of war. Indian and Pakistani officials say the Prime Minister will launch his latest diplomatic mission during a visit to the region in the next few days when he is expected in Delhi to meet the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee. He will then go to Islamabad for talks with President Musharraf. Although Downing Street will not discuss details of the trip for security reasons, it seems to be part of an international effort to persuade the adversaries to end a stand-off that threatens to trigger war. As in recent missions to the Middle East and South Asia, Mr Blair is working closely with President Bush, who has been in regular contact with Delhi and Islamabad. Apart from fears about renewed hostilities in the sub-continent, the Americans are concerned that the flare-up is damaging the war against terrorism. Pakistani troops involved in the hunt for Osama bin Laden have been redeployed to the Indian border. Igniting the Kashmir issue is also likely to boost public support for Muslim fundamentalists, denting General Musharraf’s popularity. Yesterday brought fresh political demands on the Pakistani leader, who accused India of “moving the goalposts” when he received a new list of 20 alleged terrorists Delhi wants arrested and extradited. They include Maulana Masood Azhar, a militant Islamic leader under detention and Dawood Ibrahim, a prime suspect of the 1993 bombing of Bombay Stock Exchange building. No deadline has been given for handing over of the suspects, but India said it expected a swift action. Pakistan described the demand as “preposterous” saying India had offered no evidence and was fabricating the charges. “Pakistan is willing to take action against the persons under the country’s law if India provides credible evidence,” Aziz Khan, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said. The list of suspects was delivered the day after the Government arrested Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, leader of an Islamic guerrilla group accused of planning last month’s attack on the Indian Parliament, and dozens of militants — many of them on India’s “wanted” list. Pakistani officials said that many others named by India were not even in Pakistan. They deny the presence of Mr Ibrahim, a Bombay gangster who fled India after being named as the prime suspect in the stock exchange bombing which killed hundreds. Politically it would be suicidal for any Pakistani leader to extradite 20 nationals to India. If Delhi presses the issue it could lead to the sort of stalemate the international community wants to avoid. Although Mr Blair will avoid public confrontation with General Musharraf — who is regarded as a pivotal ally in the war against al-Qaeda — he is expected to deliver an uncompromising message over terrorists in Kashmir. The Times has learnt that Jack Straw and Colin Powell agreed in October to step up pressure on General Musharraf to deal with such terrorist groups once the conflict in Afghanistan was over. Both Britain and the US recognised it was “imperative” to support the Pakistani Government as they forged an international coalition against al-Qaeda. However, Mr Powell is understood to have expressed forcefully the view that while Islamabad should be allowed “off the hook” for its role in the origins of the Taleban regime, there could be no succour given over terrorist groups operating with Pakistani support or from its territory. “Musharraf has done himself a lot of good by backing the coalition, but Washington is in no mood to tolerate terrorists with links to bin Laden operating with the apparent blessing of Pakistan,” a Whitehall official said yesterday. Mr Blair is expected to urge the Indian and Pakistani Governments to resume the dialogue begun in Agra last July, which later stalled. But while acknowledging that the Prime Minister’s visit to the region would be “timely”, government sources emphasised that he would not be travelling with “a blueprint or proposed solution for a settlement”. Neither Downing Street nor the Foreign Office believes that there is any role for the UN or an international mediator unless specifically requested by both sides. Mr Blair’s diplomatic effort is difficult and could be derailed at any time by a fresh act of violence. Yesterday India said that three soldiers were killed near Kashmir by suspected separatist gunmen. For its part, Pakistan charged the Indians with continuing their massive build-up along the border, including activating “forward air bases” and even mobilising naval forces. “Pakistan continues to very, very closely monitor each movement that the Indian armed forces make and continues to take appropriate defensive measures so that Pakistan is not surprised and is not caught unawares,” Major General Rashid Qureshi, the government spokesman, said. Despite the sabre-rattling, it is still hoped that the Indian and Pakistani leaders, who for much of the past few days have been making open threats against each other, can be persuaded to resolve their differences face-to-face at the seven-nation South Asian summit on Friday in Kathmandu.If any progress is made there Mr Blair would be perfectly positioned to take the process forward. There are signals that compromise is still possible. In one sign of reconciliation, the two countries yesterday exchanged details of their nuclear sites and undertook not to attack them in an annual confidence-building measure. Certainly the language used by the Indian leadership has softened since the Pakistani authorities began a crackdown on Islamic militant groups. In his New Year’s message to the Indian people, Mr Vajpayee, who heads a hardline Hindu nationalist coalition government, said he did not want a war with Pakistan and even held out the prospects of peace talks to resolve the half-century old dispute over Kashmir. “Shed your anti-India mentality and take effective steps to stop cross-border terrorism, and you will find India willing to walk more than half the distance to work closely with Pakistan to resolve through dialogue any issue, including the contentious issue of Jammu and Kashmir,” he said. thetimes.co.uk If you're lucky Americans read the previous story. Which never even mentions "Blair".