Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15274)	1/1/2002 4:54:20 PM
From: 49thMIMOMander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Happy New Year to everyone, already started, continuing, euro and all. Additionally happy euro-year, smart that it is not as difficult to counterfeit-fake as it could be, leaves some smooth transition time for those 2/3 of dollars out in the world being either this nor that. Obviously neither the just arrived euro, nor the soon to disappear (two months) bills have been popular among those dealing, wheeling and scheming in grey, not green, money. Ilmarinen More interesting as some finally have agreed to kind of track money, some of the cashflow, internationally, who could ever had believed that?? Btw, any opinions on the optimum ratio of original and counterfake money?? to spure trade and business??

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15274)	1/1/2002 6:06:22 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Enjoy yourself, it's later than you think. What is the 'Q'? Btw, I'm no chicken little harbinger of doom, but I am a student of history and very much subscribe to the economic analysis that grants us approximately 4-5 years to master the lost art of 'saving'. By then, I hope to be ensconced in a very old world line of work I'd never imagined for myself. Owning a bar. It's about the most recession/depression-proof businesses going. But it's an odd occupation for someone with a low tolerance for the booze-impaired. I don't want to sound ominous, but I am very much convinced that it will prove critical to know the next time to 'sell high'. This last bubble was merely the practice round. How does this relate to FA? Well, most importantly, economics underlies most decision-making geopolitically. And since the globalization of terrorism has us confronting the spectre of faith-driven idiots with WMD, there's nothing in the economic analysis I follow to suggest that it can't happen sooner than 2006-2007, given the right impetus.... and surely a WMD can have a sudden dampening impact on an economy. In real time, one can look at Uncle Algae pumping gazillions into an injured economy, the massive spending underway for a 'long-term' war/rebuild effort that is heavily larded with unnecessary pork, and the approaching retirement of boomers (lessee, 1946 & 60 = 2006) as a potentially unhealthy convergence. Again, saving much and selling high is a good strategy, perhaps an essential one. Learning what works and doesn't work in economic crisis periods is also wise. And the long patience needed to buy the bottom properly may redistribute wealth in such a way to bring many new faces to the fore when FA issues are discussed a decade from now.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15274)	1/1/2002 6:54:02 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Y'know Maurice... I love Jay.. He is one of the brighest of the posters out here on SI.. But he also likes to play in very fast speculative markets, take his money and run, and look for the next play. Thus, I perceive him often being melodramatic and predicting doom in the short term, but having people construe it as long-term. Look at the performance of the US dollar since 1995 on a monthly chart: futures.tradingcharts.com Now look... the world has been predicting the decline of the USD since at least the beginning of this chart. They were predicting the demise of the USD in 1999 when the Euro came into official use. And here we are over 20% higher since the Euro was introduced. Personally, I would be HAPPY to see the USD decline, since it would make American goods that much cheaper versus imported goods. Sure it might be a bit inflationary, but we've been in deflation for several years now and that inflation could create higher earnings for some companies (and hurt others). But what the evidence seems to be indicating is that the US dollar will grow even stronger. Something that will be good for US importers, but very tough on exporters. The pressure on the Japanese economy and the likely devaluation of the Yen in 2002, as well as the uncertainty which will develop now that the "marriage" in Europe has been consumated (easier to be engaged than actually being married), could create instability in Europe, and greater weakness in their currency. Which will then likely lead to more calls for protectionism by US manufacturers. But from that chart data above, we can see the USD go to as low as 105 and still not break the monthly uptrend. But you're right that eventually all bubbles will pop. And when the USD crashes, we'll essentially be paying off dollar denominated debts with cheaper dollars and screwing all of those who sold us stuff for those dollars, by giving them a smaller return on those USD when they try and exchange them. Btw, I do believe that OBL, in his scheme of schemes, has targeted NYC for special attention given its financial importance, as well as it being the location of most of the world's gold reserves. Take that "target" out, and we could see that crash in the USD, and a surge in gold (limited supply, markedly higher demand)... Given the Arab obsession with gold, I can see him, or his remaining followers attempting to create such a crisis of currencies. Personally, I hope some folks up there in NY and DC caught the hint and are taking steps to decentralized both market operations, as well as holding gold reserves. Hawk

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15274)	1/1/2002 8:07:15 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Who will strike first? Dec 20th 2001 \| DELHI AND LAHORE From The Economist print edition The attack on India's Parliament has posed difficult questions for both Atal Behari Vajpayee and General Pervez Musharraf Get article background THE Bush doctrine apparently encourages countries that are victims of terrorism to defend themselves by going to war. But what if the two countries involved are nuclear powers? India is wrestling with that question after an attack on its Parliament on December 13th in which nine Indians were killed. Many more, including some senior politicians, would have died if the terrorists had not been stopped before they could detonate their bomb. Speaking to Parliament on December 18th, India's home minister, L.K. Advani, blamed Pakistan for “the most audacious” and “the most alarming act of terrorism” in two decades. He did not say what India would do about it. Unlike the United States after September 11th, India appears to have little appetite for war. For now, it is still betting on diplomacy. India is gathering evidence against two Pakistan-based groups fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad. They are backed by the military Inter Services Intelligence agency (ISI), India claims. It has sent details to several countries, including Pakistan. Demands have been made: Pakistan must shut down the two groups, arrest their leaders and cut off their finances. Both groups deny the charges. Pakistan, a central ally in the American-led war against al-Qaeda, is admitting nothing. There is little sign yet that diplomacy will work. Will India's prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, then move on to war? The pressures for doing so are strong. His party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is hawkish by instinct. The BJP-led government in Uttar Pradesh is up for re-election early in 2002. Most important, perhaps, is that failure to retaliate could be seen as an admission that India is not a first-class power capable of answering terror with force. Mr Vajpayee appeared to question American calls for calm, saying, “We have exercised enough restraint.” But the arguments against military action are compelling. For one thing, India has not been wounded nearly as badly as America on September 11th. Shocking as the attack was, Indians are used to small-scale carnage. “If the casualties had been higher, the reaction might have been different,” said an Indian official. Nor is it clear what useful military action India could take. Toppling Pakistan's military-led government is unthinkable. Even if India had the power to do it, any successor would probably be worse. The most talked-about option is a raid on terrorist camps in the part of Kashmir that Pakistan controls. But they are easily rebuilt and all available methods for attacking them are risky. India's bombs and artillery are not accurate enough to hit the camps from afar. A small ground expedition might be wiped out by Pakistan's army, now on high alert. A less risky tactic might be “hot pursuit” of guerrillas as they flee across the “line of control” that divides Indian-controlled Kashmir from Pakistan's side. Ex-generals have been emphasising the dangers, the greatest of which is escalation. “We're just strategically boxed in” by Pakistan's nuclear weapons, says Kanti Bajpai, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in Delhi. India's friends among the big powers may offer an escape. America was slow to issue its usual call for Indian restraint; after bombing Afghanistan, that would have sounded hypocritical. Yet it is nervous about a situation that, said the secretary of state, Colin Powell, “could spiral out of control”. Western pressure on Pakistan's president, Pervez Musharraf, hitherto a stalwart ally in America's fight against terrorism, may be the only alternative to the ultimatum that India is reluctant to issue. The winding down of the war in Afghanistan and General Musharraf's weathering of domestic opposition to it make it easier for America and others to push him. How far he can be pushed is uncertain. He had already begun a cautious crackdown on extremists, starting with those who cause trouble at home. The newly appointed head of the ISI had told groups operating in Kashmir to become less conspicuous: Lashkar-e-Taiba has recently removed the signboard from its offices near Lahore. But to close them down would take more courage than it did to abandon the Taliban. People close to General Musharraf claim he is furious about the December 13th attacks, which could force him to choose between a showdown with India and one with the anti-Indian militants. Either could stir up opposition to his rule, perhaps even within the army. If he dares comply, General Musharraf will demand a price: agreement from India, perhaps, to negotiate over Kashmir. A fitful peace process had already started to stir. The Indian government had offered talks with separatist Kashmiris. Mr Vajpayee was thinking about meeting General Musharraf at a regional summit in January. That meeting is now off, but contact could resume if the general acts against terror. Mr Bajpai of Jawaharlal Nehru University thinks America will try to overcome Indian objections to some sort of mediation, which Pakistan has long sought. Perhaps, but India is in no mood for compromise and General Musharraf may feel he has risked enough already. Talk of war could easily return. economist.com

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (15274)	1/1/2002 9:40:37 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Lindy, with the birth of the Euro a day ago, it's a bit presumptuous to say that the whole world is converting to a dollar economy Oh, Maurice, ya dreamer ya! Watch the Euro continue to drop against the Dollar, as the Canadian Dollar has. Canada and Europe have economies that are much more Socialist than ours, and they will continue to try to keep their people happy by increasing social spending. It is inevitable that their currency will drop in value. All of South America is virtually on a "Dollar Economy". Look at the mess in Argentina, where they have the Peso pegged to the dollar, and are trying to keep from going under by coming out with a third, worthless, currency. People all over the world keep American $100 dollar bills in the mattress as their savings account.