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To: peter_luc who wrote (66799)1/1/2002 8:20:45 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 275872
 
Other risks for the Euro:
- Germany, which used to be the flagship in Europe, is increasingly lagging behind. Presently, it has the *lowest" industry growth rate of all EU member States. Ironically, it is now Germany which drags the Euro down.


Peter, isn't the risk directed mostly at the Germans and their standard of living? It seems to me that the Euro may prove to be the great equalizer....forcing the low end of living standards like Spain or Greece and the high end like Germany to more more towards the middle. That would mean that German to survive and coexist in this Union would have to accept willingly a lowered standard of living.

This country went thru such a process about 50-60 years ago between the North and the South. The South was poor, more agricultural and not unlike Greece had little advanced/hi tech industry whereas the North was very industrialized and had a higher standard of living. After WWII, there was an out steady migration of factories from the North in which a particular industry over time would virtually relocate itself to the South. Eventually, the North and its cities began to languish, losing population and wealth while the South began to grow quickly and prosper. Overtime, the median incomes of the two regions have begun to approximate each other. Fortunately the North in the last 10-15 years has started the process of reinvention and has pretty much stopped its decline. This process of regional transformation has been fairly well documented by urban scientists in this country.

While I don't think the changes that may occur in the EU will be as dramatic [there are important differences], I do think a facsimile of the process is possible.

What do you think?

ted



To: peter_luc who wrote (66799)1/1/2002 8:23:32 PM
From: Bill JacksonRespond to of 275872
 
Peter, yes, The fixed rates have had some effect. We have seen a lot of new jobs in Spain and Portugal, Greece and Ireland and the success of these states has indeed given rise to a movement for the same wages, the same taxes, the same restrictive labor laws etc, that hobble the initial members of the Rome group.

In fact it is those same members of the club of Rome that lead the charge to strangle the low wage areas.

All under the guise of being fair to labor, taxes etc.....in fact it is the simple claw of protectionism trying to force these low wage higher efficiency areas to heel and follow the lead of their betters.

Why is it the unions who lead this rush to kill jobs? One would think they would want to preserve them. Of course the UAW has killed more jobs than any other union in the USA, so I guess unions are dumb as well as selfish.

Next they will want high duites to protect them from 'unfair' competition.

As for germany, they had a golden chance with unification, but the unions and pols killed it.

Bill



To: peter_luc who wrote (66799)1/1/2002 9:28:17 PM
From: TGPTNDRRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 275872
 
Peter, Thanks for your post. Well reasoned as always.

I'd have to disagree with a little bit, however.

- Germany, which used to be the flagship in Europe, is increasingly lagging behind. Presently, it has the *lowest" industry growth rate of all EU member States. Ironically, it is now Germany which drags the Euro down.

That's all true.

If you'd asked me back in '92 if West Germany could merge with East Germany and produce anything but a *MESS* by Y2K I'd have said you were *NUTS*.

They have been a strong country, & seem (from here) to be true to their goal.

I would not sell Germany short. They have the educational legs on the rest of Europe -- IMO.

Re: <Big Bang in 2004.>

You guys had better get together soon with Russia 'cause if you don't we will -- in the Trans Pacific Alliance.

And even if you do we may also!

You heard it hear first(or perhapse 10th).

;-]

tgptndr