To: t2 who wrote (12171 ) 1/2/2002 9:47:55 AM From: telecomguy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14638 yes, you are right...but this guy is somewhat strange as it appears he has been reading my posts for number of years and then whenever i make a factual mistakes as to the timing of my trades (because i can't be bothered to look up my trade transaction records just to post on Sillicon), he thinks i am purposely misleading or trying to manipulate the market. Anyway, i made a lot on the way up and lost a lot on the way down and have admitted that i never expected the downturn to be so severe and so quick in the networking sector....and presumably as you pointed out, we are all here to exchange info to help us do better in our investing -- not trade barbs about the exact accuracy or the intent of the messages posted here. Notice he did not respond with any form of analysis/forecast regarding NT or the networking sector or the market in general.....he probably doesn't like to be put to the test. As I posted earlier, there has to be some more rationalization in the telco sector. Until the incumbent carriers squeeze out the marginal players and get the retail/wholesale voice price under control at a profitable level, we should not see quick recovery of the CAPEX. The trend towards liberalization of telecom throughout the world is likely to put additional pressure but the capital crunch is actually going to play in the favor of the incumbents as they won't have to deal with so many suicidal Next-Gen players who used the IPO/V.C money to buy market share at any cost (usually their bankruptcy). Networking is a scale business so i expect more consolidation....when you see some major mergers and more news of large next-gen players going into bankruptcy (Colt, Global Crossing, etc....), THEN and only THEN would i feel comfortable in re-looking at taking major position in NT. Having said that, NT is well-positioned, Fibre-Optic penetration is nowhere near saturation contary to most uninformed pundits, & networking in general is still a great growth sector when one considers the IP revolution, deregulation & general concept of Global Economy where information will play a key role in generating future wealth/productivity. So in that sense, if you have long-term outlook, you can do lot worse than buy NT right now....certainly better bet than LU or ALA.