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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: milesofstyles who wrote (26775)	1/1/2002 10:17:08 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 52237

True, it wasn't a big secret and there was an old saying to sell in May and go away for example but I had never seen a study that showed if it was just an 80s 90s bull market thing or an over all market strategy. One thing I always hate when I see charts posted is the time frames given. Many will only show 2000 till today to show that a certain indicator always pointed to tops in the market, while others will only show 1982 to now to give the bullish cases. I feel you have to weigh all time frames and give weight to the different market conditions when trying to make a decision. A good example of this by a highly quoted source is Ed Yardeni. I read his free stuff regularly but have some problems with his analysis. When showing market under/over value, his charts only go back to the mid 80s and many times only to post 95. Valuations went sky high in that time frame so it isn't a very realistic read of history on which to make an assumption. True it gives a "relative" read to where we have RECENTLY been but not a true reflection of varying market conditions, bearish, bullish and flat. The market was actually under valued for a very long time in earlier time frames but just stayed that way much like we have remained over valued for much of teh late 90s. it all comes down to sentiment, liquidity and where people want to hide their money. If you are Warren Buffet and can hold for a long time, then of course you buy those time frames when things are under valued and just sit and wait years if you have to. However most of us are looking for shorter time frame gains and thus want to nail them right as they are about to turn. Of course the problem is time when trying to do this stuff for yourself so you have to take what you can get from others until you can build your own models. It took over 2 weeks to build my market patterns model and I will likely refine it a bit more to zoom in on more specific time frames as I go. Another model I want to build is over/under value but getting all the data is tough. Trying to get your hands on historical earnings, interest yields etc and get them crunched into one spread sheet takes a lot of time. I built my own COT report spread sheet and it is now over 35 meg in size. I have data going back decades yet I only have time to maintain the major indexes, some metals and Natural Gas. I haven't had time to crunch all the commodities into charts yet even though I have all that data also. I now understand why the big brokerage houses have so many people crunching data and maintaining databases. Anyway, I think the key to trading these markets over the next few years may be in identifying what type of market we are in so as not to assume that patterns of the last few years will be repeating. Talking to Don, he feels we could go into a period like the 70s where we just go flat and find a comfortable trading range. I tend to agree with him and one of my period charts not posted matches the last year almost to perfection. The first couple months of this year may lend an important clue as to how to play the last 9 months.... I hope. -gggg- FWIW and slightly off topic, I had to shut down my message board as my server is having problems and I wanted to avoid getting any corruption in the board CGI files. I will try and do some maintenance when the server problem gets fixed but until then, I have locked out new message posting. The rest of the site works fine. Good Luck, Lee