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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1518)1/2/2002 9:04:17 AM
From: Return to Sender  Respond to of 95411
 
Semis going up a bit at the open. From Briefing.com:

8:30AM : The pre-market bias is mixed with the S&P 500 futures 1 point below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are 9.5 points above fair value while the Nasdaq 100 PMI is up 9.7 points. Reports that South Korean chipmaker Hynix Semi had raised its price of chips it sells to PC makers has sparked some interest in the tech sector.
7:54AM GlobeSpan Virata (GSPN) 12.95: Needham & Co upgrades to STRONG BUY from Buy and raises price target to $27. Firm believes GSPN's balance sheet of $570 mln in cash (or roughly $4 per share) provides it with the resources necessary to continue to fund new product development. Firm forecasting 2001 EPS of ($0.02), 2002 of $0.06, and introducing a 2003 est of $0.54.

6:40AM : Nikkei closed%, Hang Seng -0.41%:Asian stocks mixed. Korea's Kospi index pushed to a sixteen-month high thanks to a 15% surge in Hynix Semiconductor. Hynix was buoyed by news that it raised its chip price for the third time in less than a month. Chipmakers also provided a decent boost for Taiwan, though China Mobile proved to be a drag on Hong Kong's Hang Seng index.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1518)1/2/2002 4:59:34 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95411
 
From Briefing.com Close: There were some positive early developments that triggered solid gains in a number of tech sectors. The key was the report that South Korean chipmaker Hynix Semi was going to raise prices on DRAM chips. The market construed this as a sign of improving market demand and bid the semiconductor (SOX +4.4%), networking (NWX +5.4%) and computer-hardware (HWI +5.3%) groups firmly higher. Unfortunately, this strength did not trigger a broad based advance with the much of the session spent vacillating at modestly weaker levels. This was reflected in the weaker market internals that persisted until late in the day. While the improving internals and late session advance is is encouraging, they came amid generally lighter volume, the same as the late slump on Monday. Potential factors conspiring to keep aggressive buyers out of the market were the impressive Q4 advance, warning season and a wait and see approach in front of the employment data and the influx of investor retirement cash. Not all the news was favorable for the semi sector, however, as the Banc of America put out a cautious comment on Intel (INTC +4.7%) regarding the pattern of capital expenditures (at 15 year high) and return on capital (15 year low). Also, Lehman suggested that neither bookings nor billings indicate a V-shaped recovery, although valuations at 3x their prior lows seem to discount one; firm expects most semis should post solid Q4 numbers but cautious until a U-shaped recovery becomes clearer. Regardless of these worries and the thin trading conditions that accompanied the late run, the market still has the positive seasonal factors into tomorrow's session. DOT +1.4%, Nasdaq 100 +2.1%, Russell 2000 -0.3%, SOX +4.4%, XOI -0.1%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1650/1539, Nasdaq Adv/Dec...

2:54PM Lehman on Semis : Lehman analyst Dan Niles is cautious on the semi group, as neither bookings nor billings indicate a V-shaped recovery, although valuations at 3x their prior lows seem to discount one; while most semis should post solid Q4 numbers, he remains cautious until a U-shaped recovery becomes clearer.

11:48AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : -- Technical -- Group has demonstrated relative strength on the session with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index or SOX trading in positive ground all day. Currently trading at 528, look for intraday resistance in the range of 534/536 which brackets its 20-day EMA in addition to today's intraday high. To the downside, look for initial support around 522 which marks Friday's close.

10:00AM Morgan Stanley On Semis : Morgan Stanley comments on Semiconductor Industry Association data out Monday evening; revenue of $9.8 bln in Nov. was 4% below firm's estimate, but only 1% shy on a 3-month avg. basis. Based on view that reduced backlogs and seasonally weak demand will promote a reasonably high level of earnings risk in Q1, firm expects most semi stks to remain in a corrective phase over the near-term.

finance.yahoo.com^SOXX&d=t

Nice move towards the close on the SOX and beyond it as well. Next stop the 200 day MVA?

RtS



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1518)1/3/2002 11:03:34 AM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95411
 
Don, I look for this current rally to extend back up to 590 on the SOX. This should give AMAT the opportunity to trade slightly above 46 again. At that point we will need more conclusive evidence of an actual recovery in orders and pricing beyond the memory, DVD and foundry industries if the rally is to continue.

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lk14]

chart.yahoo.com^SOXX&g=d

BTW, I did have a nice quiet New Years Eve. I was awoken by fireworks which was nice considering all that has happened this past year. Celebrate life! Also I sold my TFS this morning banking a better than $1000.00 profit. Not enough liquidity in that stock for me to hold it.

RtS