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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (153445)	1/2/2002 8:57:12 AM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

"Some unknown entrepreneur invents a fab in a box." It would be difficult to do that with the present fab techniques. Not only does the environment have to be extremely clean, there is the little question of waste disposal. You might get this to work for low-integration stuff like some of the analog circuits, but even trailing edge digital would be hard to pull off. For some of the embedded market, FPGAs are starting to get to interesting levels. The Xilinx SpartanIIe series chips are as little as $10 (in moderate quantities) with 100k gates. That's enough space to put a couple of 16 bit RISC processors with some peripherals and memory controllers. Now the speed won't be XScale or even StrongArm, but 50-60MHz should be doable, and that is more than enough for a lot of things. And there is a growing body of open-sourced IP, just look at opencores.org ...

To: GVTucker who wrote (153445)	1/2/2002 11:11:45 AM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

"What would make "the tech industry collapse" in your book?" adding your answer to this question. I would say that INTC's business has already collapsed. Earnings will be down 95% for 2001 over 2000 once this last quarter is reported. Revenue has been crushed. I think the earning will have a small rebound but growth will be very modest for the next 5 years or so. After this quarter is reported the p/e will likely be in the range of 100-250. I think that when the rebound in earnings is seen, if the stock is still trading around 30. The p/e will see be in the 60-70 area. I think the growth rate will not justify this. I also expect US dollar weakness to push of interest rates and will result in a "fair value" p/e equities being much lower then it is now. I would think that this process will take about a year or so to play out. INTC should see $15 at least and could fall to $10. My 1 year low targets for the markets is nas 1050, s&p 750, dow 6800