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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (26464)1/2/2002 11:24:37 AM
From: Paul Shread  Respond to of 209892
 
Very interesting. Thanks, Lee. I was thinking of Yale Hirsch's data, which looked at the first 5 days versus the full year for the last 50 years or so, and found a pretty close correlation.



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (26464)1/2/2002 12:08:57 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Respond to of 209892
 
Lee: Re: "we should see a 60s-81 type range next..."

Makes sense but only after this bear has bottomed IMO. I don't think the bottom of the range has been defined yet.

Re: "The historical trends seem to show that Jan =Feb is not a good time to bet against the market in any time frame be it flat, up or down."

I don't see that trend necessarily in bear markets that have not bottomed.



To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (26464)1/2/2002 8:47:47 PM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Re first five days of January - Don't know how accurate this is, but someone just emailed me this:

First Five Days of January----------------------Yearly Close
1) 1929: 307 to 297.7(-3%)------------------248.5(-17.1%) from the 1928 close of 300.
2) 1930: 244.2 to 246.5(+1%)------------------164.6(-33.8%)
3) 1931: 169.8 to 171.9(+1%)-------------------77.9(-52.6%)
4) 1932: 74.6 to 78(+4.6%)-------------------59.9(-25.7%)


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