Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (15373)	1/3/2002 6:35:27 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "This wouldn't happen, Bilow. If the Arabs, G-d forbid, should ever destroy Israel, there will be great slaughter and a greater diaspora." White South Africans said the same thing before they gave up power to the ANC (which had some pretty vicious habits). The result has not been a great slaughter, nor a greater diaspora, and it appears that the level of political violence in the area decreased substantially. Of course the South Africans were able to see the writing on the wall, and chose to negotiate. Israel isn't even thinking about this, as far as I know, but when the US drops support for Israel they will start talking about it. Do you have another example of a small minority population, inside of a huge majority population, where the minority was able to retain control of a disputed government in the face of the majority? If you do, maybe how they were able to do it would indicate how Israel could survive long time. I can't think of any examples. Re: "The world will wring their hands but do about as much as they did during the Holocaust, which is to say, nothing." Exactly correct. Your problem is not that Israel has no friends, it's that the friends you do have cannot be relied on to provide you much assistance. That's because they're not in the same boat as you, so they're not natural allies. Let me explain. It's very easy to get another nation to cheer you on, and towards Israel is largely where US sympathies lie. But as you've noted, those sympathies are changing. And even with the sympathetic advantage it's difficult to get real help from another nation. Sympathy is easy, what's difficult is to get them to send their young men to kill and to die for you. When Britain had a fight with Nazi Germany, the US had reason to get involved, as we believed that it was possible that we would be next. The Germans had conquered a substantial portion of the world, the danger was real. *But even that danger was not enough to get the US to fight alongside Britain. Instead the Germans had to actually declare war on us.* And this failure to ally with Britain was despite the very strong ties of custom, language, blood and past alliance that connected (and still connect) the US to Britain. Think about how much stronger those connections are than the connections the US has with Israel, which is dominated by a different religion, a different language, people who largely don't look like us, and who have never fought alongside our own soldiers in a significant war. Where were you guys when we were freezing in Korea or getting foot fungus in Vietnam? Maybe there has been some help, but it doesn't get a lot of press. On the other hand, we can all recall our soldiers fighting alongside Britain's in many wars. The political problem for Israel in the US is that losing US support for only a few years would be fatal to the Israeli state. The Arabs only have to win once, the Israelis have to keep winning forever. The American left wing loves underdogs, and have long been supportive of the Palestinian cause. The American right wing supported Israel during the Cold War, but that was because Israel was on our side, and now that the Cold War is over, the US no longer needs help from Israel and the right wing has a tradition of well-armed isolationism. The US relationship with Israel was once two-sided, now it's one-sided, and it's been a major disaster for the US. How long will that continue? American support for Israel continues only because of diplomatic inertia, the sort of inertia that keeps the US on Cuba's case. Eventually the US will halt military aid to Israel. My guess will be that this will happen soon after the Democrats take back the presidency in 2004. Re: "If this result is okay with you then I really have nothing to say." It's not a matter of what's "okay", it's a matter of recognizing the nature of reality. The reality is that Israel has to fight its fight alone. Do you really think that I'm going to be willing to take a bullet for Israel? I don't think that going through life believing in fantasies is a good thing. Israel should consider the concept of a permanent US alliance as a fantasy. And as far as "... I really have nothing to say", I doubt that I have heard the last of this from you, you barely comment on anything else on SI. Would you hold me repugnant for simply stating the fact that you yourself acknowledge? "The world will wring their hands but do about as much as they did during the Holocaust, which is to say, nothing." This is the truth, and Israel should recognize it and cut themselves the best deal they can get. I suggest playing nice-nice with the Palestinian Authority because their grandkids are going to out vote your grandkids in the inevitable democratic elections 30 years from now. Avoiding the "great slaughter" in Israel is not my task. It's the task of the people who live in Israel. There are plenty of things that the Israelis can do other than be slaughtered, but I don't see them getting ready to do any of them. Here's some ideas: (1) They can move to other countries. (2) They can negotiate a peaceful change of government from a position of strength like the South Africans did. (3) They can ethnically cleanse the occupied territories, and try to hold on with nuclear weapons. (4) They cannot expect Bilow to take a bullet for them. I think it would be a good thing if the US allowed Israeli citizens to move to the US. -- Carl