Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (214103)	1/2/2002 5:57:29 PM
From: J_F_Shepard	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769670

"George is correct about the probability of 10 in a row, although each flip has a probability of 50%" You're making the same mistake he is...confusing theoretical probability with experimental probability.... All of the insurance examples are experimental probabilities.... If you flipped a coin 10 times and got 7 heads, your experimental probability is 70% for heads, but it doesn't influence the next flip which is still a 50% theoretical probability. An example is often made of basketball and baseball, eg if a player has a shooting percentage of 43%, there is nothing that says he can't suddenly get "hot" and sink 7 or 8 in a row. Similarly a .300 hitter who hasn't had a hit in his last 25 times to the plate is not "due".