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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MetalTrader who wrote (11406)	1/2/2002 11:34:39 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

MetalTrader, Re: <<I could use a little human contact after months of pure charting...at least I think I could.>> Hello. You don't ask for much. g. I can identify with your search for some semblance of sanity. This year wore me out. It seemed that I was playing with my own money more than ever before and I didn't like it much. (It's funny how their money gets to be yours after you have it for a while and have it counted.) I ended up about 11% for the year and feel like I worked pretty hard to get there. I'm hoping that you and Dabum and Kodiak and others will soon perfect a proprietary charting plan (yes those plans are getting to be fairly common) that will allow you to generously supply information to those of us too lazy or too stupid to learn. I hope you had a good holiday. I wondered why you weren't around much anymore. For what it's worth, my most interesting stocks for the next month or so are immr and tfs. If anyone can make sense out of immr's chart, let me know. It's got to be the most unusual one I've followed lately and believe me, I watch it very closely. It bounces around like crazy and then big, at least big for it, buys come in and it moves to the next level where it bounces around some more. I like it for the story and the possibility that it could be much bigger, along with the fact that unlike some story stocks, the fundamentals don't make you want to throw up. John Clark asked for view on the macro picture for the next year or so. I wouldn't even want to venture a guess. One thing seems clear to me, the pessimists who stay bearish fail to grasp the the U.S. economy is a huge force with tremendous weight and velocity. Many of the factors that are correctly identified as weaknesses exist but the ability of the economy to take those hits and keep on moving is, I believe, understated. Having said that, in the face of all the uncertainties in this time in history where trade barriers and political lines are dissipating for trade purposes and where, at the same time, terrorism and political upheaval in oil states and trading partners could disrupt the balance, there are many uncertainties. It's like playing poker with 2's, 5's, 10's and one eyed jacks wild and then trying to figure out the odds that someone is holding a straight; not impossible but not easy. In the spirit of responding to John's thoughtful post, I note that I learned that in a down market it is hard work to make money. People get panicky and the oscillations are faster and more pronounced, it is much harder to predict the "mood" of the investors in individual stocks since they change from panic to lust in a heartbeat and then back, and the best thing about investing in such a market is the humor and insightful discussion from a few trusted cyber friends who are interesting, even if they are sometimes bloodthirsty. g. I made decent money this year on keg (many times), on avir (many times), on sage, on gnss, on immr, on rsas and on vvus. I learned some hard lessons in fixed wireless with wavc and adap, and definitely learned something with clrn. Both clrn and adap cooked their books and took a lot of investors for a quick ride down. I don't know how to ameliorate that risk but it certainly has made me less trusting and more attentive to unexplained downward moves. I think enron taught many the same lesson. Good luck to all. Ed