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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (12564)	1/3/2002 12:03:53 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jacob, <<I can see not-small chances of realistic scenarios for Naz below 1000 or above 3000 in 2002: Nas below 1000: investors are treated to a series of Argentinas and Enrons in 2002, culminating in a dirty suitcase bomb making a major American city uninhabitable. Consumer spending in 2002 does what business spending did in 2000 (falling off a cliff). The savings rate goes strongly positive, housing prices in 2002-2003 do what telecom-equip stock prices did in 2000-2001. Nas above 3000: The Bubble is back: liquidity and low interest rates persist, consumer spending rebounds strongly, pricing power returns to corporations (but not enough that inflation becomes a worry). The War goes well. Europe and Japan lag the U.S. recovery, and so dollar-denominated assets continue to attract capital. Overleveraged consumers, corporations, and governments, just get more overleveraged, and the party on Wall Street resumes>> If you were trying to scare me, you have succeeded brilliantly:0) Almost as scary is BBR logging 140+ posts in one day, when absolutely nothing dramatic has happened on the overnight news. I thought my PC had a problem. <<range traded ...>> puts you on my watch list:0) Carry on, Chugs, Jay

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (12564)	1/3/2002 6:23:47 AM
From: Bocor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

03:41 ET Any thoughts you care to share on NEM? Newmont Raises Normandy Bid, Wins Board Backing MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) Thursday increased by 10 Australian cents a share its takeover bid for Normandy Mining Ltd. (A.NDY), Australia's largest gold miner. Newmont's revised share-and-cash bid values Normandy at A$1.93 a share, or A$4.3 billion, and eclipses a rival share-and-cash bid from South Africa's AngloGold Ltd. (AU) that values Normandy at A$1.81, having been similarly increased by 10 cents just a week ago. Newmont's bid, which is recommended by the Normandy board, appears to be a knock out blow given AngloGold was only able to raise its bid on the basis of expected cost savings from a proposed cooperative agreement with Canadian gold major Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX). AngloGold is unlikely to now raise its offer but it will be hoping that Newmont shares fall later Thursday in response to the higher bid, eroding some of the 12 cent premium Newmont is offering and making its own offer more competitive. AngloGold's offer closes Jan. 11 while Newmont's offer closes Feb. 15. However, Newmont is back in the box seat and if successful will be able to move forward with consummating its three way merger plan with Normandy and Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. (T.FN), creating the world's largest gold producer. Failure for AngloGold will leave the South African company still seeking to diversify away from its politically risky home base in search of an upward re-rating of its shares. Failure could also leave it vulnerable to takeover itself with Barrick being tipped as an obvious merger partner. "Considering the values of the two bids, as well as other factors such as trading liquidity and the long term potential and value creation associated with Newmont and AngloGold...the revised Newmont bid continues to be superior to the offer by AngloGold and has the full support of Normandy's board," Normandy's executive chairman Robert Champion de Crespigny said in a statement.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (12564)	1/3/2002 7:41:15 AM
From: Rick Storm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jacob, I always enjoy and learn from your posts. Its very hard to go after bottoms(emotionally). I think your structured layering in is a great tool for trigger pulling; and has helped me into the techs in October. But the tops of ranges are much more difficult. Even if one can withstand greed and sell into strength, the act of finding the range top is very hard. how do you find these areas and still feel you have not missed alot of the run? Rick