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To: rharshman who wrote (110145)1/2/2002 8:24:57 PM
From: ronho  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
SI Bob becomes Pres & CEO of Investors Hub. LG decides to leave due to SI Bob.

216.63.13.30

Posted by: LG
In reply to: None
Date: 1/1/2002 6:16:54 PM
Post # of 2008

To All: As most of you know I made a decision to leave the Silicon Investor
message boards because of what I saw as biased and unfair enforcement of the
SI Terms of use. One of the administrators responsible for my decision to stop
posting on SI was SI Admin Bob (Bob Z). After making the decision to stop posting
on SI, I began to look for a new forum from which to launch and host a new MDD
thread. IHub became my number one choice. I was about to start the thread when
Matt decided to bring SI Bob (Bob Z) in as site administrator. Due to the many
differences and conflicts I have had with Bob Z I was not interested in hosting a
thread on a message board Bob Z is associated with.

After the break between Matt and Bob, I reconsidered and started this new MDD
Thread. Since starting the MDD Thread on IHub I know I have been at best a part
time host, for that I apologize. However, I have taken some much needed time
away from the markets and message boards and I have had some personal
conflicts that have kept me from contributing and hosting this thread as actively as
I did the SI MDD Thread.

I am looking forward to returning to full time day trading this year and I "was"
looking forward to contributing on a regular basis to this thread starting this week.

However, I just found out that Bob Z is back with IHub in an even higher capacity
than he was before he left.

investorshub.com

After all the conflicts I have had with Bob Z both public and private I am not inclined
to do anything that will draw page hits for his company.

Allow me to take this opportunity to thank each one of you that joined me on this
thread to share your work and market insight. Your contributions have been
appreciated by me and I am sure by the many that have read this thread over the
past months. I wish you all health, wisdom and wealth for the coming new year.

Good trading and the best of "good buys"...

Regards,
LG

PS: I will still begin updating my MDA Web Site on a regular basis starting this
Sunday, January 6, 2002.
marketdirectionanalysis.homestead.com



To: rharshman who wrote (110145)1/2/2002 8:32:49 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
one of the problems with that scenario is you expect 30% CAGR for five years, and QCOM has gone sideways or down for the last two. if you've been in the stock that long, you know that two years ago nobody was predicting two years of flat earnings. since nobody predicted what happened these past two years, why should we believe they can predict the next five? this is the kind of selective forgetfulness that plagues the bull's thinking (regarding QCOM and the market in general).

If the earnings actually do grow at a
compounded 30% a year with continued good prospects, the PE should actually be higher.


by that logic, the PE should be lower now since they have been spinning their wheels for so long. it just goes to show, PEs, as well as earnings, are hard to predict. this is another argument in favor of dividends, because that is cash you can take to the bank even if the share price is in the dumps.



To: rharshman who wrote (110145)1/2/2002 8:43:49 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 152472
 
btw, David Dreman's book on contrarian investing has some very good stats on the inability of analysts (or anyone else) to predict future company earnings. estimates are essentially random beyond a few months out. just one of the reasons the job of market strategists is to make astrologers look good.