From Gem-X
BTW he is calling for Naz 2755 by May-June this year
This post is for Naz 12,000+ in 12 years LMAO
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NASDAQ 12,200, DOW 38,000
NASDAQ Wave count: 1974 to 2014(!!???)
This Elliott Wave Principle is just too incredible. Something just clicked tonite, reading the Elliott Wave Principle book and looking at long term charts in the DOW, SPX and NASDAQ. I FINALLY know exactly where we are in the long term wave count..(!) I'm gonna post my observations here, so that they're all dated. I might have to copyright this, and I'm gonna make sure that no one takes all this information and claims it as their own. Sounds like crazy paranoia, but something just really got my engine revved up, and I want to share what I've observed. This is a field of maximum Prechter bowl smoking brain capacity, that eluded me for a while. (I want full props for this). This is just a continuation of Prechter's and Frost's long term projections in the book, because they both stopped projecting long term waves in 1987, and never got to the NASDAQ (Come to think of it, I might even write an updated book, not just using Elliott Wave, but also every other form of technical analysis like candlesticks, and I'd also try to make it more contemporary.)
For months, I couldn't figure out how the NASDAQ could move from 54.88 to 488 to 323 to 5133, and how to count those huge long term waves, and now I can. I didn't read a chapter of the book too carefully, because it seemed a little too out there, but now it all makes sense. Long term waves aren't counted point by point, but the percentage gain in each move. I pretty much know exactly where we are in the NASDAQ's Grand Supercycle, and the approximate long term top of all 3 indexes, a subject that Mr. Yale graduate Prechter fucked up on back in 1987. I don't know if the book is all Prechter and Frost...I honestly think that Prechter is just recording all of R.N. Elliott's observations when he first created the Elliott Wave Principle.
Anyway, here goes.
In 1974, approximately 1 year after the NASDAQ was first born, the NASDAQ bottomed at 54.88, and at that point is when the huge move began.
Wave 1 advanced from 54.88 to 488, about 8.9 X 54.88 = 488 from 1974 to 1987, a 13-14 year period.
In 1987 the wave 2 correction began, in a running flat, from 1987 to late 1990. The correction ended at exactly a .382 retrace of the move from 54.88 to 488, at 323, dead on.
In 1990, the wave 3 began running from 323 to 5133. That's where I just got dumbfounded, trying to figure out how a wave 3 can move that high, and how to count it.
Well, here's how it's done. Wave 1 moved 8.9 X the beginning of it's move from 54.88 to 488.
That means that wave 3 should move 1.618/1.75 X 8.9 from 323.
1.618 X 8.9 = 14.4
1.75 X 8.9 = 15.6
Wave 3 target:
323 X 14.4 = 4651
323 X 15.6 = 5038
Wave 3 from 1987 to 2001 (13-14 year period) is counted like this.
Wave 1 of Wave 3 moved from 323 to 645.
Wave 2 of Wave 3 corrected about .382 to 545.
Wave 3 of Wave 3 moved approx. 1.618/1.75 X 2 = 3.23/3.5 to 1950/2000. 545 X 3.23/3.5 = 1907/2000.
Wave 4 of Wave 3 corrected between .382 and .500 of Wave 3 to 1357.
Wave 5 of Wave 3 moved .618 of the percentage move of wave 1 + wave 3 = (Fibonacci number!)6.2 X .618 = 3.82 (Fibonacci number!). 3.82 X 1357 = NASDAQ 5133/5183.74. Pretty astonishing how accurate the Elliott Wave works..
Since Wave 2 (488 to 323) was a slow flat, than Wave 4 should be a fast zigzag, which we got, according to the theory of alternation. Wave 2 took about 4 years, and Wave 3 should take about 2 years, which it's done. Also, Wave 4 should bottom at or within the previous wave 4, which was 1357, and NASDAQ retraced to 1387.
NASDAQ's wave 1 lasted 13-14 years, wave 2, 4 years, wave 3 13-14 years, and wave 4, 2 years.
This means, we've entered a new bull market, that should last 13-14 years, but this is wave 5. If analysts think valuations are stretched now, they haven't seen nothing yet.
What's crazy is that wave 1 and wave 3 both lasted an equal amount of time, 13/14 years. Wave 5 could last 1.618 X 13/14 years, around 22-23 years.
Since we've corrected the move from 545 to 5133 with a zigzag wave 4, and bottomed at 1387, how far, at the very least should wave 5 run?
Wave 5's are usually, and at least equal length to Wave 1, and Wave 1 shot up 8.9 X 54.88 to 488.
If this is the case, than the NASDAQ's final and massive bull run should travel 1387 X 8.9 to 12,344, in 13-14 years or within 6-8 years. I don't know what will happen to this planet when the DOW SPX and NASDAQ all complete their wave 5 of wave 5's, but all three indexes have just started it.
Here's how I'm calculating the future wave 5 move from 1387 to 12,344.
Wave 1 should retrace .618 of Wave C, which is 4252 to 1387 to 3157, and around the bottom of Wave A, 3044/3157 (The day the NASDAQ hit the bottom of Wave A, the high of the day was exactly 3157, and the low 3044), like it did in 1929 to 1935. The zigzag in 1929-1932 was A-B-C with the C wave being 1.382 X the length of Wave A, like the NASDAQ's zigzag correction.
So Wave 1 should move from 1387 to 3044/3157.
Wave 2 should correct .500/.618 of the move from 1387 to 3044/3157, to NASDAQ 2020/2063.
Since Wave 1 would travel 2.276 X 1387, than wave 3 should travel at least 1.618/1.75 X 2.276 from the bottom of wave 2. 3.983 X 2063 to NASDAQ 8217.
Wave 4 would than correct .382/.500 of the move from 2063 to 8217, to 5866/5140.
Wave 5 should be equal length to wave 1, travelling 2.276 X the bottom of Wave 4. 5866 X 2.276 = NASDAQ 13,351 or 5140 X 2.276 to 11,700, or somewhere inbetween .382/.500 like in 1998, splitting the difference between 13.351 to 11,700 to 12,525. In 1998 the wave 4 corrected the difference between 1444 (.382 retrace) and 1272 (.500 retrace) to exactly 1357.
Wave 1: 1387 to 3157
Wave 2: 3157 to 2063
Wave 3: 2063 to 8217
Wave 4: 8217 to 5140/5866
Wave 5: 5140/5866 to 11,700/13,351
Now the 13-14 year projection for the DOW:
The DOW has entered it's new bull market wave 5 move from 8078.
Wave 1 started from 570 to 2722, travelling 4.77 X 570 to 2722.
Wave 2 corrected to 1616, a .500/.618 retrace of the move from 570 to 2722 in the crash of 1987.
Wave 3 moved approx. 1.618 X the length of wave 1's 4.77 move. 7.71 X 1616 = 11908/12472
Wave 4 started in Jan 2000, and ended in Sept 2001, correcting approx. .382 of the move from 1616 to 11908, to 8078 (.382 retrace is around 7976/8000).
This would mean Wave 5 should travel at least the length of wave 1.
This would be calculated as 4.77 X 8078 to DOW 38,532+.
At DOW 38,352, that would the elusive Wave 5 of Wave 5 move that Prechter has been obsessed with for the past 25 years.
The question now is, what is going to drive these indexes to these levels? 12,200 on the NASDAQ and 38,000 on the DOW...but the main question is, what will cause a correction in those indexes of more severe magnitude than what we've just witnessed in 2000-2001?
In the years of 2014/2015, I hope I've made enough money to make a sturdy nuclear bomb shelter... |
