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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (17854)	1/2/2002 9:03:36 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 99280

Haven't done that one, Mish. It's too smart for me to have thought of doing it <G>. Actually, it has the potential to be a winner if we go up early, but if we correct late January or Feb, you're SOL. I think a correction late is probably more likely, BWDIK. I looked at V-man's chart tonight, and a thought came to me (amazingly enough). What if we rally to NDX 1634 or so by Friday and pull back to NDX 1550 by the middle of next week? That would set up a touch to the H&S neckline at 41 QQQ by late this week, a drop to Bollinger Band support, and a bounce back to the neckline at possibly 42 or 42.50 to get us slightly above Max Pain. A drop into expiration could lead to a greater correction leading to the H&S target at QQQ 35, or NDX 1430 or so and COMP 1793. Here's his chart: stockcharts.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (17854)	1/2/2002 9:20:51 PM
From: I. N. Vester	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

time spreads: it's a reasonable play, but you still have to be right on the direction and timing to make it work well. if the near term option is in the money at expiration, it works better if you have the $$$ to buy and deliver the underlying at expiration rather than paying any time value to buy in the short side, which you will have to do even on day of expiration if you buy the short option back, tho not if it ends up out of the money of course. of course you have to put in some more net $$$ for the intrinsic value, but hopefully you end up with a very low price for the remaining long side time. if the underlying is just below the strike a few days before expiration, for the added risk of getting caught in a downdraft you can buy the underlying at that price. then if the price moves above the near strike you deliver at a profit and also get some free intrinsic value on the remaining long option, otherwise sell the underlying around even, or liquidate the whole position or whatever. i've been doing this on equities with wider spreads and I get much better pricing when i tell my broker to buy the spread at x cost net. their options guy often gets me filled well e.g. both sides at the ask, vs selling at the bid and buying at the ask, as you have to if you buy/sell each side separately esp on issues where there is such low opt volume so you can't get filled inside. i trade at ubs painewebber but i imagine any broker can take a phone order to establish a spread on net cost basis.