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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: i-node who wrote (209)	1/2/2002 11:54:50 PM
From: Obewon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

While I agree with you concerning the number of idiots posting on various boards that do nothing less than hype or dis the stock without considering the fundamentals, I think you are underestimating the timeframe required for XMSR and SIRI to become cash flow positive. The insistance that some investors have toward valuing an investment just based on momentum or the acheivement of certain growth milestones (which may or may not be good for the company - ie "growing broke"), is foolish in my opinion. While I think that the model XMSR and SIRI are using (taken partially from the cable industry) will be a success, I am not blind to the excesses and the cycles that the cable industry went through in the past 20 years. Remember that after the initial honeymoon period in the cable companies back in the 80's, ALL of them had their stock prices slashed due to cashflow issues at one time or another. My caution on XMSR and SIRI is mainly focused on the HUGE cash outflows scheduled over the next several years as part of their marketing contracts with automakers. If their stocks continue to rise AND they continue to have free access to the capital markets (something that killed the telecoms and Internet companies), they will do fine; however, given the uncertainty of both of those conditions, I don't feel that we should give the company a "Microsoft 2002" valuation when reality is closer to a "Microsoft 1990" valuation today. Obewon/Valuation Guy